▪️a reason that cannot be resolved otherwise

▪️clear objective, strategy and realistic plan

▪️forces and resources in place for their implementation

▪️and a realistic chance that at the end of the war you will have better peace than before its beginning.

2⃣ In addition to the absence of international legal legitimacy, none of the above conditions were met, and yet an order was issued to begin operations without a comprehensive plan, let alone any alternative (branch) plan.

3⃣ Even worse is when you have as defense minister a reservist who, although he served on two short missions, does not understand the state’s security and strategic issues. If he simultaneously has despotic tendencies, and believes that war has no laws and rules, you have guaranteed unsolvable problems.

4⃣ Alliances are not built by humiliating partners, behaving arrogantly, not counting on them in your plans, making decisions without them, and when everything goes wrong, attacking them.

5⃣ Sun Tzu already said: „When you surround an army, leave it a way to escape. Do not press too hard on a desperate enemy.“ The Iranian regime is fighting for survival and has chosen such a strategy. Its leaders and IRGC commanders know very well that if they fall, bloody revenge may come for years of terror against their own population. They also know they have allies in the world who could help them when the time comes.

6⃣ No reasonable person can have interest in a long-term extensive conflict with an open end, nor in internal collapse and long-term civil war in a 90-million country sitting literally on a global nerve center.

7⃣ Israeli and American strategic interests coincide only partially. Israel benefits from degradation of Iran’s ability and its proxy groups to threaten its existence and security. The USA benefits from long-term stability in the region and preventing an uncontrollable and confrontational hegemon from emerging there.

▶️ Without some loss of Trump’s and USA’s credibility, this probably won’t work. It’s better to admit the mistake and record small gains immediately than to hope for total victory without a plan. Usually, instead of that, big losses come. The USA should sit down with their regional partners and NATO allies, succeed, say sorry and try to convince Iran that enough is enough. There’s time for bad solutions, including major escalation, only when everything else fails.

****

Suplementary explanation to my point 3

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has made several controversial statements regarding military operations in the Caribbean and during the conflict with Iran (codenamed Operation Epic Fury). His rhetoric often prioritizes „lethality“ and „warrior ethos“ over traditional diplomatic or humanitarian constraints.

Operations in the Caribbean (Operation Southern Spear)

Controversy in the Caribbean centers on aggressive tactics against suspected drug trafficking vessels, which critics allege have led to potential war crimes.

„Kill Everybody“ Allegation: Hegseth allegedly issued a verbal order to special operations forces in September 2025 to „kill everybody“ aboard a suspected smuggling boat.

Controversy: A second strike reportedly killed two survivors clinging to wreckage, leading to accusations that Hegseth ordered the execution of people who were hors de combat (out of the fight), a violation of international law.

Hegseth’s Response: He labeled these reports „fake news“ and „fabricated,“ insisting all strikes were „lawful“ and targeted „narco-terrorists“.

„Sink You“ Policy: Hegseth publicly stated that anyone working for designated terrorist organizations bringing drugs by boat would be „found and sunk“.

Internal Pushback: He called a video by Democratic veteran lawmakers—reminding troops of their duty to refuse illegal orders—“treasonous“ and attempted to demote Senator Mark Kelly for his involvement.

Conflict with Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

During the 2026 conflict with Iran, Hegseth has used aggressive and religious language that critics say disregards the laws of war.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks in Puerto Rico come …

9 Sept 2025 — It’s all about the OIL. … Pieter Germishuys  makes you feel like a big strong respected manly man right? … Oh, go to Fox New…

Lawmakers warn Hegseth may have committed war crimes …

30 Nov 2025 — POLITICO has not independently verified the Post’s reporting. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) — both of whom …

Pete Hegseth brings combative style as face of Trump’s war in Iran

11 Mar 2026 — He speaks of how Operation Epic Fury is „crushing the enemy“, whom he labels „terrorist cowards“. „We have only just begun to hunt…

„No Quarter, No Mercy“: In mid-March 2026, Hegseth declared there would be „no quarter, no mercy for our enemies“ in Iran.

Controversy: Under the Geneva Conventions, declaring „no quarter“—refusing to spare those who surrender—is explicitly prohibited.

„Stupid Rules of Engagement“: He has repeatedly criticized established rules of engagement as „stupid“ and „politically correct,“ arguing they „handcuff“ American soldiers.

Religious Rhetoric: Hegseth has framed the war in a religious context, stating that the „providence of our almighty God“ is protecting U.S. troops and that the mission is „righteous“.

Civilian Casualties & Media: Hegseth drew sharp criticism for appearing to minimize U.S. casualties and for „bulldozing“ questions regarding civilian deaths, such as a strike on an Iranian primary school that reportedly killed over 100 children. He accused the press of only reporting casualties to „make the president look bad“.

„Punching Them While They’re Down“: He described strikes against Iranian leaders as „punching them while they’re down,“ adding that it is „exactly how it should be“.

The post How to get out of this? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

Note: Shortened transcript of original slovak podcast as from Feb 20. 2026.

Fog of War

Situation in Ukraine

Moderator: What is the overall situation in Ukraine?

General Macko: For the first time in a long time, after 2.5 years, we saw that not only were Russians biting off pieces of Ukrainian territory, but we also saw that Ukraine executed local counterattacks and even regained more than 200 square kilometers of territory.

This is not yet some strategic turnaround, but we see that Ukrainians still have the capability for local counterattacks on land, where they are outnumbered against the Russians.

Strategic campaign continues

Regarding the strategic campaign, it naturally continued. The Russians again generated large packages of massive attacks. They do this cyclically – they did it before the Geneva talks.

🔹Russians rely on quantity

🔹Ukraine demonstrates deep strikes and is capable of hitting very deep into Russian territory

Overall strategic picture: we are in a war of attrition. The talks didn’t move significantly anywhere, despite it being important that they took place.

Zelensky said at the Munich conference that de facto there is no power plant in Ukraine that has not been hit and somehow damaged by Russian forces.

News from the front line

When we look at the front line overall, there are no fundamental changes:

🔹Near Sumy, Russians advanced in one village, but it’s not a breakthrough

🔹No substantial change in Kharkiv region

🔹Relatively quiet around Kupyansk as well

🔹The biggest battles are traditionally in the arc from Lyman through Kostiantynivka, Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk (Donbas)

🔹More pronounced activity in eastern Zaporizhzhia region, where Ukrainians gained the mentioned 200 km²

Deep strikes from both sides

Air warfare continues. Russians had two massive strikes – before the Munich Conference and just before the peace talks in Geneva. They do this cyclically – we saw it before Abu Dhabi, before Alaska.

This is apparently an attempt by Russians as part of large-scale psychological and hybrid warfare against the West, where they try to demonstrate their capabilities.

Key Russian production numbers:

🔹They produce around 130-150 missiles monthly

🔹Thousands of drones monthly

🔹At least 130 drones daily (modernized Gerans)

New Russian capability

Importantly, Russians can now also use Gerans in combination with other reconnaissance drones to hit relatively mobile targets. This was something they couldn’t do at the start of the war – that’s why they bombed railways, because they couldn’t hit trains.

State of war after four years

It’s incredible, but next week it will be 4 years since this war began and the fifth year is starting.

When we look overall, we are absolutely clearly in a state of war of attrition – this is war until total exhaustion.

Personnel problems on both sides

🔹Russians have around 700,000 soldiers in Ukraine

🔹Casualties are high on both sides

🔹Ukraine depends on external sources

Explanation of fallen exchanges: When Russians advance and Ukrainians withdraw, they sometimes don’t have time to take their fallen with them. When Russians move forward, they can collect their fallen, while Ukrainians don’t have this opportunity.

Territorial gains over two years

Over two years, since Russians gained initiative, they gained only 1.5% of Ukrainian territory:

🔹They had 29% in summer 2022

🔹It dropped to 17% in autumn 2022

🔹Over years 2023-2025, they reached nearly 20%

🔹They still control 9% less than at the start of the war

For comparison: In the same time, the Soviet army would have marched through and conquered half of Europe.

Technological innovations

Ukrainians led in technologization:

🔹Focus on drones (aerial, ground, naval)

🔹Have drone forces as independent units

🔹Drone units integrated in combat formations

Russians respond:

🔹Centralized it through the Rubikon system

🔹Modernized electronic warfare

🔹All possible jammers to protect their own forces

Middle East – Gaza and Israel

Moderator: What’s new in Gaza and Israel?

General Macko: Nothing substantial over the past week. Besides Trump’s non-functioning plan, low-intensity, continuous Israeli campaign continues:

🔹Destroying infrastructure

🔹Poor humanitarian situation

🔹Hamas has sporadic activity

No fundamental changes in southern Lebanon or the West Bank.

Important change: The United States announced they want to completely withdraw from Syria in the coming weeks and months. This relates to the new government getting the situation under control.

Strategic Background

Geneva Negotiations

Moderator: How do you evaluate the trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia?

General Macko: They fulfilled my expectations – I had no great expectations. Russian communication before the talks already indicated it would be even worse than in Abu Dhabi.

Why did the negotiations fail?

Russians changed the negotiator – they put Medinsky in charge again. He’s a cold, very uncompromising hawk. Statements from February 9th and 10th showed that:

🔹They want major geopolitical concession from the West

🔹They want protectorate over Ukraine

🔹Regardless of territorial agreements, they want to control all of Ukraine

🔹It should be disarmed and without guarantees

Negotiation participants

For the US: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (Trump’s personal envoys)

For Ukraine:

🔹Rustam Umerov

🔹Kyryl Budanov

🔹Andriy Hnatov (Chief of General Staff)

🔹David Arachmia

For Russia:

🔹Medinsky

🔹Mikhail Galuzin

🔹Igor Kostyukov (GRU chief – Russian military intelligence service)

Negotiation results

No progress – key issues couldn’t be resolved:

🔹Territorial arrangement

🔹Security guarantees

🔹Ukraine’s future status

First day: 6 hours of negotiations
Second day: Only 2 hours

Zelensky was dissatisfied that sensitive issues weren’t discussed. Ukraine’s position: territorial integrity is non-negotiable.

Trump’s deadlines

Trump set a deadline that has no connection to battlefields, but only to American supplementary congressional elections, where Republicans are doing very poorly.

Zaluzhny’s Presidential Ambitions

Moderator: Zaluzhny indirectly hinted in an interview that he could run for Ukrainian president. How do you see this?

General Macko: It’s an interesting matter. He didn’t formally express it, but the tone of the interview suggested it. He gave an interview to Associated Press.

Controversial claims

Zaluzhny claims that in 2023, just before the Zaporizhzhia offensive, half his forces and ammunition were taken away – a decision by the president and General Syrsky.

Commanders‘ reactions didn’t please Zaluzhny:

🔹They criticize him for bringing this up now

🔹They claim he’s not entirely right

🔹They see the situation differently than he communicates

Historical context of the 2023 offensive

After rapid counteroffensives in autumn 2022, expectations arose for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. Zaluzhny focused on Zaporizhzhia region, but meanwhile Russians built strong Surovikin line.

Problem: If the direction of attack is expected, it’s no longer the main direction or doesn’t have such a chance to succeed.

The situation in 2023 was different:

🔹The West gave almost no support

🔹Support started coming only in March-April

🔹Troops weren’t trained on Bradley, Leopards

🔹There were information leaks about brigade movements

Criticism of Zaluzhny

Soldiers criticize: He’s trying to retroactively absolve himself of responsibility and shift it to others. Now is wartime – it’s not the most fortunate timing.

Zaluzhny no longer has the popularity he had when he was at home. Instead of talking about what he would do differently, he talks about who’s to blame for what.

Munich Security Conference

Moderator: You write in detail about the Munich Security Conference in our weekly. How do you evaluate it?

General Macko: It was one of the most tense conferences. The greatest expectations were about how the American delegation would react.

Shocking report on the state of the world

The report had an image of an elephant and the headline „Under Destruction“ (instead of the usual „Under Construction“). 120-page report spoke of demolition of international order.

Main demolisher: The United States, which after 1945 de facto built it, protected it all along and guaranteed it.

Conference atmosphere development

Last three years:

🔹2024: Erosion, losing benefits from international arrangement

🔹2025: Already decay

🔹2026: Conscious destruction

Key presentations

Rubio: Had a soaring speech, but then it was totally erased by the visit to Slovakia and especially Hungary, where he showed they don’t care about unity with Europe.

Merz: Said the international order is gone, rejected nuclear armament of Germany.

Macron: Classically – Europe must be self-confident, sovereign and must build its own capabilities.

Chinese paradox

Interesting paradox: The Chinese, who according to Trump benefited from the international system, now act as the biggest protectors of that system.

China tries to benefit as much as possible from the internal contradiction between the West and gain attention not only from third world countries, but also Europe.

Slovak non-participation

The fact that Slovakia wasn’t there is a catastrophe. Either they weren’t there because:

1) We don’t have people capable of such communication (like Blanár)

2) They can only manage departments, not discuss at this level

It’s a great shame for Slovakia – our voice is not heard.

Comparison with Finland

Our president had a program: halusky, Italian cuisine at the Olympic house – that was all. The Finnish president had a 19-point program. Finland is similarly sized, has similar capabilities, but is more advanced.

The difference in presidential output is the difference in country output and citizen success.

Slovak armament

Moderator: In connection with the American Secretary of State’s visit, the Ministry of Defense announced it wants to buy another 4 F-16 fighters and HIMARS rocket launchers. Is this good?

HIMARS – yes

General Macko: I’ll start with HIMARS – as the war in Ukraine shows, there’s a renaissance of artillery, but it’s better to have precise artillery and deeper strikes.

Ours are requesting HIMARS with extended range:

🔹150 kilometers or

🔹PRECISION STRIKE MUNITION up to 500 kilometers (PrSM, original ATACMS)

Missiles are fired from the same system, only the container changes.

We have similar equipment: We had older HIMARS missiles for our rocket launcher, which was combined – it could fire Soviet standard 122mm and NATO MLRS standard from containers.

Advantages:

🔹Rocket launchers we have are on old Tatra 813 chassis

🔹We could manufacture this in cooperation and participate in production for other countries, if put on new chassis

🔹Could cooperate on manufacturing rocket pods or containers

F-16 – not a priority

We have 14 fighters on order (12 combat + 2 training, but really combat two-seaters).

Arguments for additional purchases:

🔹You need 2 minimum in sharp readiness

🔹Another 2 in reserve

🔹Needed for training

🔹Part always in inoperable condition

My opinion: I would be against those fighters. Not because it’s illogical, but it’s not a well-set priority.

After 20 years we’re still behind with one brigade – they’ve wanted a mechanized brigade from us since 2004, so we’d have at least one that can defend us.

Let’s finally complete that brigade and then dream about castles in the air.

Energy security – dispute with Croatians

Moderator: How do you see the dispute with Croatians over the Adria pipeline?

General Macko: I look at it from security perspectives:

Paradox of Slovak approach

On one hand:

🔹We contracted 60 billion euros for defense in 3-4 months (framework agreements)

🔹We consolidate, but arm competitively

On the other hand:

🔹We are totally vulnerable in energy security

🔹We committed to still take Russian oil

What Fico forgot to mention

When attacking Ukraine together with Orbán, he forgot to mention:

🔹Russians bombed Ukraine

🔹Russians bombed a reservoir, thereby also affecting the pipeline

🔹If Ukrainians were repairing, why wouldn’t they solve freezing people in Kyiv first?

Problem of dependence on one source

Instead of source diversification we’re still dependent on one source, where:

🔹Russians use it as a weapon

🔹They use their weapons on the pipeline too

🔹We endanger Slovakia’s stability and security

Croatian position

Croatians speak clearly:

🔹Adria’s capacity is sufficiently large

🔹You can import any oil, but not Russian

🔹EU didn’t give exemption for Russian oil through pipelines

🔹„We won’t burn our fingers“

Real reason for dispute

Fico tries to save the Hungarian model:

🔹They used dumping prices due to Russian embargo

🔹They bought substantially cheaper

🔹But gasoline and diesel are more expensive than in countries with „expensive“ non-Russian oil

🔹Hungarian company takes huge margins

Slovak citizens get nothing from this.

Security risks

Endangered is the entire operation of:

🔹Economy

🔹Health systems

🔹Security systems

🔹Transport systems

The question is appropriate: Should prosecutors look at this? What are the property relationships here?

Security Council

Security council is called regarding ex-minister Tomanová, but not called regarding energy security after 15 years of inability to diversify oil supplies.

360°

American-Iranian negotiations

Moderator: How do you evaluate American-Iranian negotiations in Geneva?

General Macko: Great progress was not achieved. They were open, both sides said so.

Primary problem

Iran says: There’s no force in the world to deprive it completely of nuclear program. It needs uranium enrichment for its own nuclear power plants – otherwise it would be strategically dependent like Slovakia on Russian oil.

USA insists on: They want absolute certainty – 100% guarantee that they won’t have any nuclear program at all.

Escalation instead of agreement

It was clear this would be the stumbling block. That’s why we see escalation:

🔹Poland calling citizens to immediately leave Iran

🔹Trump said he’ll decide „within hours“

🔹He has a secret security meeting

🔹Estimates speak of possible attack over the weekend

Trump’s maximum pressure strategy

Trump needs to make the threat of immediate attack credible:

🔹Recalling citizens

🔹Warnings

🔹Media leaks

🔹Creating psychotic atmosphere

Compared to last week: I don’t think Trump will attack, but the probability of strike has significantly increased.

Cuba

Moderator: It seems the communist regime in Cuba will end. How?

General Macko: So far it looks like similar scenario as in Venezuela. Marco Rubio (his family comes from Cuba) hinted at this during Maduro’s arrest.

American strategy

They’re pushing it to the maximum – applying maximum pressure:

🔹They know Russians won’t be able to help them

🔹They blocked oil deliveries from Venezuela too

🔹Mexico also said they won’t supply oil

Cuba’s state

Cuba was left bare:

🔹Problems since the 90s

🔹Garbage accumulating

🔹Energy outages becoming dramatic

US goal

So they don’t have to invade, they try to achieve that the regime collapses itself. Maximum „tap on the leaning structure“.

Problem: It doesn’t guarantee stable conditions, just a more favorable regime for Americans.

Trump’s Peace Council

Moderator: Is Trump’s peace council an attempt to create a new UN or just entertainment?

General Macko: Everything points to it. He had big ambitions – not just for Gaza, but for the whole world. Eventually he reduced it.

Problems with conception

Reason for reduction:

🔹Invitation was sent to 60 countries

🔹Few of them responded to real membership

🔹Not one paid 1 billion for permanent membership

🔹Russians are still evaluating the possibility

The whole thing is built on „lifetime president Donald Trump“ – one person out of 8 billion people decided to lead such a council.

First session in Washington

At least 40 countries participated (majority observers):

Members: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Bahrain, Pakistan, Turkey, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Kosovo, Albania, Argentina, Paraguay.

It’s not a balanced organ representing the world.

Gaza program

Financial commitments:

🔹9 countries pledged 7 billion USD for reconstruction

🔹Americans 10 billion (didn’t say from where)

🔹Minimum 70 billion needed

Military mission:

🔹20,000 soldiers + 12,000 police

🔹Soldiers provided by: Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Albania

🔹Commander: Major General Jeffers (former special forces member)

🔹Won’t have UN mandate – only this council’s

Implementation problems

Gaza is unstable, Hamas not disarmed – basic prerequisites for mission functioning are missing.

Western allies are skeptical – they perceive it as an attempt to replace UN and create order dominated by Trump.

Controversial invitations: Netanyahu, Putin (Putin conditioned participation on unfreezing Russian assets).

Closing Quote

„Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man’s character – give him power!“

Abraham Lincoln, US President who died in 1865 by an assassin’s hand.

The post General Pavel Macko’s Security Radar – 152nd Edition appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

Moderator: The war in Ukraine is entering another year. Peace negotiations have not yet brought the desired results. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is convinced that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has already started the Third World War. The war has claimed the lives of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of people. It has caused enormous material damage. According to a joint report by the World Bank, European Union, UN and Ukraine, published on Monday, the costs of post-war reconstruction are estimated at approximately $558 billion over the next decade. However, peace is nowhere in sight.

We will now discuss more with Lieutenant General (Retired) Pavel Macko. Welcome. Thank you for finding the time.

General Macko: Thank you for the invitation.

Moderator: Mr. Macko, at the beginning, we could assess how the front and the war are doing now at the beginning of the fifth year.

Levels of War in Ukraine

General Macko: This war is taking place on four levels.

Tactical Level – Front Line

The most visible one for us is on the front line, it’s about tactical combat. We are in a stage of attrition warfare that is very difficult, with heavy losses and minimal movements on the front line.

When I compare it, at the peak of the Russian invasion in 2022, the Russians controlled 29% of the territory. Then the Ukrainians partially pushed them back, and since then, for at least the past two years, this kind of attrition warfare has been ongoing, where the Russians are slowly trying to crumble, literally breaking Ukrainian defense like stone.

They are helped by gliding bombs, which they have brought to the battlefield or into use in the meantime. But actually, over all that time, over the past two years, they have gained less than 1.5% of Ukrainian territory.

So today, after four years of war, at the beginning of the fifth year of war, the Russians control only less than 20% of the territory. Despite this, they pretend that they could continue prolonging the war, that they could continue.

Operational Level of War

If we look at the operational level of war, the Russians are intensively attacking deep into Ukrainian territory and destroying infrastructure, but just as they failed to destroy Ukrainian air defense at the beginning of the war, it has meanwhile received reinforcement through Western assistance, so it still resists quite effectively. Despite the fact that the strikes are getting bigger.

In four years, however, the Russians have achieved:

🔸The ability to produce more missiles

🔸Produce substantially more drones

🔸Modernized those drones

🔸If the Russians couldn’t hit moving targets deep in territory for three years, they have now achieved this

On the other hand, Ukraine has gained:

🔸The ability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory with its own forces

🔸We have seen the latest attacks not only with drones, but also with missiles, whether cruise missiles or their own ballistic missiles, which they continue to improve and can manufacture themselves.

Naval Operations

Despite not having a fleet, Ukrainians managed to first push out the Russian fleet, the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, which became too dangerous and uninhabitable for this fleet.

They pushed them to the eastern coast of the Black Sea to Novorossiysk and surrounding areas. And this through attacks:

🔸Missiles on Crimea

🔸Long-range drones on Crimea

🔸Naval drones

War Transformation

In general, this war has brought fundamental changes. What we see today is a completely different war and different armies than what we saw at the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022.

The armies have also transformed. Many of the most experienced have already fallen or had to be replaced. And on the other hand, we see that there has been a great transformation of those armies, their organizational structures, there has been technologization of war.

And by the way, this is also what enables Ukraine to survive so far:

🔸Great support from the West – financial, economic, material

🔸Mainly constant asymmetry, modernization

🔸Efforts to balance the numerical superiority in terms of people and equipment on the Russian side

Strategic Level

At the strategic level, we see that the Russians have gained nothing, because Ukraine continues to resist after four years. They wanted to quickly gain Ukraine under their power and gain control over it. That didn’t work out.

And they wanted to discourage other countries from closer relations with the West. The opposite happened. NATO expanded with Sweden and Finland.

Hybrid Activities

On the other hand, and this is the last dimension or level of that war, this war is also taking place in the form of hybrid activities or in this information and psychological space, whether inside Russia, inside Ukraine, or in the surrounding world.

Regarding inside Russia:

🔸Russians suppress any opposition

🔸They try to regulate social media now

Inside Ukraine:

🔸They try through bombing infrastructure and attempts to freeze the population to undermine the will

🔸This has never worked particularly well in history

🔸Despite this, it has devastating effects on the Ukrainian population, but the determination is still strong enough

Towards the West:

🔸Russians try, including through participation in negotiations, which they deliberately prolong, to divide the West and gain support from third world countries

🔸They try to sow seeds of doubt among Ukraine’s Western partners

🔸They conduct long-term information hybrid activities against us

🔸We have seen in recent months and years even sabotage activities directly in the rest of Europe

And we actually see not completely clear unanimity and unity of the West, but support for Ukraine still continues.

War of Endurance

So in summary, we are in a situation where it’s a war about who will last longer.

🔸Currently Ukrainians have nowhere to retreat, they must endure, because they would face the liquidation of statehood and nation

🔸Russians are still fighting on foreign territory and cannot move forward in the war

So they try rather in those other areas, in the psychological, in the hybrid influence to undermine what keeps Ukraine afloat and that is also the external help.

Moderator: I’ll go to the words of General Zaluzhny, who was the army chief. He said these days that basically there is no army that would somehow be able to end this war in the current situation, because the war, as you also indicated, has completely changed from what we were used to.

Not only how the war is conducted, but also the various brakes and counterbalances in stability and security are absolutely different, that the world has changed.

Volodymyr Zelensky also said that Vladimir Putin started the Third World War in the sense that so many countries are actually involved in the conflict, in negotiations, in arms supplies. Do you also perceive it this way, that we are basically already in the Third World War?

Has the Third World War Already Begun?

General Macko: I will answer on two levels.

Regarding Zaluzhny’s Statement

First, regarding Zaluzhny’s statement. Of these current armies that are fighting – Russian and Ukrainian, neither has the strength to make a fundamental change and dramatically reverse the course of the war.

That means it’s an exhausting war that will go on for a long time. We know such wars in history. After all, Russia defeated Napoleon’s stronger and more modern armies by eventually exhausting them – by avoiding direct confrontations and wearing down the French army. It had to retreat there and they finished it during that retreat, so Napoleon actually lost despite expectations, lost in an attrition war.

So an attrition war can be won even by the weaker partner. It’s not at all that mathematics automatically decides in favor of Russia. If it were just about mathematics, all conflicts would be decided in advance. But they weren’t, and we could go far back in history.

How It Could Change

That means it could be changed either by someone else coming and entering the conflict:

Russians tried this:

🔸They drew North Korea directly into military involvement

🔸They rely on military support from Iran and North Korea

🔸But we see that North Korea has now withdrawn, rather only provides material support

Moderator: Iran also has its own problems.

General Macko: Iran has more than enough of its own problems. And there it was also the opposite, that the Russians also didn’t help Iran when it needed it most.

And China is not engaging directly militarily, not providing military aid. On the other hand, many Chinese technologies, machine tools enable Russians to expand military production.

Ukraine’s Problems

When I look at the opposite side, Ukraine has the biggest problem with people. That’s why there’s technologization of war.

It tries to bring innovations, tries to use as much as possible:

🔸Drones

🔸Autonomous systems

🔸Ground drones

🔸Naval drones

So it’s an effort to compensate for that disadvantage in human resources – there are substantially fewer Ukrainians – with other measures.

And it has always been that such a great war brings something like a revolution in warfare and it changes.

Definition of War and Third World War

But if we look at whether there is a Third World War or not, it depends on how we look at the definition of war.

If I look at the definition of war in that classic sense, what for example Clausewitz, such a classic said, that war is the continuation of politics by violent means, but it is politics, then Russia de facto is already conducting this war.

Chronology of Russian aggression:

🔸It has been conducting it in Ukraine at least since 2014

🔸But de facto it has been conducting it since 2008

The moment Russia sensed a chance that the West was not united and moreover consolidated its domestic affairs after two Chechen wars, it did gain control over Chechnya. President Putin decided to take advantage of the fact that in 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were not invited to NATO. Because much is said that in 2008 Ukraine and Georgia were invited – but they were not invited at all. They were only promised indefinite future possible NATO membership. There was no courage to invite them to NATO and they also didn’t have such great domestic will to join.

Consequences of Delayed Integration

And this delay of official invitation and integration caused Ukraine to rather focus on European Union integration, at least they wanted to associate.

This was negotiated by Yanukovych’s regime, which was pro-Russian, but negotiated it. Eventually the Russians intervened and the result was Euromaidan and actually removing Yanukovych from power. The Russians then resorted to open war.

Russian Hybrid Activities

But when we look at what experts have long been saying and what I have also analyzed several times in the past, that Russians conduct activities on our territory, but also elsewhere in the world, that are far beyond spreading friendship and peaceful influence.

Because we have various Polish institutes, French institutes, various competitive Russian-Slovak friendship societies, which aim to spread some culture, promote their own country. These are all welcome and non-violent forms of cooperation and promotion.

But Russia systematically acts and can be said with hostile intent against institutions, against the democratic system that functions in the countries of their opponents.

Russian State Doctrine

Overall, their state doctrine is that they perceive the world as permanent conflict, which is only resolved by different means according to what time it is and where what works best.

So from this perspective we see massive Russian hostile activities. These escalated after the invasion of Ukraine, also in an effort to discourage the rest of the world from cooperating with Ukraine, from supporting Ukraine. This is in accordance with the UN Charter, but the Russians don’t like it.

So we have seen various:

🔸Sabotage actions

🔸Assassination attempts, for example on the head of German Rheinmetall and similar

That means, from this perspective, it can be said that Russians are already carrying out activities that are far beyond peaceful promotion of their interests, but are explicitly of a hostile nature.

Nuclear Rhetoric

And into this comes rhetoric, where Russia has actually used nuclear rhetoric so intensively over the past three years, which we didn’t have during the entire Cold War.

Simply, during the Soviet Union era, this topic was taboo. It was in some strategic calculations. Partners knew about it, but if nuclear weapons were discussed, it was rather in Russian-stimulated peace protests and movements in the western part of the world, then bipolar world, but not in Russia.

Today we see that nuclear intimidation has become a topic of television shows, that it’s actually spread in those evening television programs, but not in some crazy private television, but in Russian state television this nuclear or even nuclear-terrorist propaganda and intimidation is spread.

It’s also spread by Russian state officials, they use this war rhetoric and Putin himself, apparently also in an effort to justify the failure in Ukraine, so increasingly and more speaks about actually conducting war against the entire West.

Which is of course not true, but from this perspective he is already mentally in that conflict with the West and in a figurative sense, even if not literally, it can be said that yes, Zelensky is right when he says that Putin and his regime are already conducting the Third World War with the West – they conduct it systematically and use various tools for it.

Escalation Signals

Which may not be those visible weapons, although we have seen:

🔸Drone intrusions

🔸We have seen testing of our readiness and defense on the eastern border

So it’s a situation that could be said to be already „phase zero“ of a potential military conflict, which – we hope will not happen and doesn’t have to happen.

Moderator: At the security conference in Munich, President Macron got a question from a Ukrainian MP about when NATO member states will send their units to Ukraine. And Macron answered him something like we’re trying not to escalate the situation by having some ally’s foot step on that territory, so we send money, we try to arm Ukraine but we don’t send soldiers.

There is a coalition of the willing or community of the willing, which somehow took over the role after the United States and deals with arms supplies and financing. Is this enough? If we can already say globally that we are somehow drawn into that conflict anyway, is this enough for Ukraine to endure?

Western Support for Ukraine

General Macko: It should be enough, but of course at the cost of high casualties on Ukraine’s side.

Here it must be said that many opportunities were perhaps missed at the beginning of the conflict, that there was too long hesitation by the West.

Even that support, while continuous, has great fluctuations. After all, for example, the Russians advanced most after the Ukrainians pushed them back at the end of 2022 or in the second half of 2022, and then they were preparing a major offensive and Western support stopped or slowed down.

So Russians advanced most at the beginning of 2024 and this at a time when Ukrainians almost ran out of ammunition, because a major aid package was also stopped in the American Congress, we were not able to quickly ramp up military production including ammunition.

Macron’s Position

But the essence is – President Macron from this perspective tried to explain that:

🔸Ukraine was not a NATO member state

🔸The international community first cannot enforce the will of the UN Security Council because Russia as an obstructive element with veto power prevents it

🔸But the General Assembly condemned this aggression repeatedly

🔸He also said that we are clearly helping, because it’s also our duty in terms of the UN Charter – even if it’s not legally enforceable, but it’s our duty

Non-Escalation Strategy

And from this perspective he says that we don’t want to go into direct confrontation with Russians, as long as we don’t see it as inevitable, as long as we see it can be managed otherwise.

This of course may not please Ukrainians. On the other hand, those cautious ones in our societies welcome it, because President Macron and France are still in a state of security, even though they increase measures against threats, because the security situation has worsened. Germany too, all countries, us too.

But we simply don’t want to go directly into that confrontation, because the recipe is:

1) First, help Ukraine to withstand this

2) Second, with economic, diplomatic and other tools pressure Russia – also with that military aid to Ukraine – pressure Russia to abandon continuing this aggression

Problematic Compromises

And Ukraine’s leadership even accepted very favorable conditions for Russians, because Ukraine actually de facto agrees that if the conflict were frozen according to the current line of contact or that front line, it would de facto recognize at least partially those current results and the real state on the battlefield and the results of that war.

Which from the perspective of international law, morality and ethics is absolutely unacceptable, but Ukraine has no interest in continuing the conflict at any cost when they see themselves that they cannot push them out and are looking for a solution that would guarantee that when this happens, Russia won’t use time to recover and continue the war.

Counterbalance to Macron’s Position

And here perhaps it’s also necessary to say the counterbalance to what Macron says. He says that we don’t want to get involved in the current ongoing war, but we are building our defense, to prevent Russia from trying to expand the war to us or elsewhere.

At the same time, we are prepared to guarantee security, if there is an agreed ceasefire and agreed solution – at the same time we are prepared to send even soldiers who would guarantee that the conflict doesn’t break out again, that Russia doesn’t use this situation.

Compromise Between Reality and Caution

That means, it’s such a compromise between that reality and the slow ramp-up of Western aid and the effort not to escalate and on the other hand to prepare so that we are not surprised like when the Russians attacked Ukraine.

But to be prepared, so that we actually deter the Russians in advance with our preparedness from attempting to expand the conflict and expand the great war with the West.

Russian Ambitions

Today Russians actually openly communicate that they want not only to get Ukraine, but they actually want to change relations in Europe, they want to change relations in the world:

🔸They want to have a bigger role in the world

🔸They want to have their sphere of influence

🔸They demand pushing NATO back before 1997

🔸And thereby handing over countries like Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland into – if not subjugation, then into Russia’s sphere of influence

🔸Where Russia will have final authority in deciding what and how these countries will do

And that’s a scenario that nobody wants, so they don’t want to escalate.

Consequences of Ukraine’s Fall

And on the other hand, they are aware that if Ukraine were to fall, that we don’t help it stay afloat, then Russia will be strengthened, will be encouraged by that quasi-success and at the same time will gain the human and economic potential that Ukraine provides to its calculation.

And actually at that moment it will be easiest for Russia – similarly as we saw in history and it’s not just World War II, but also in older history – that such aggressors if they are rewarded for aggression, they consolidate their forces and try to gain even more in an effort to disarm that possible reversal or prevent that reversal, that it should return to the original state.

Moderator: Yes. Many politicians also point out that Russia would definitely not stop at Ukraine. However, you mentioned that we are really preparing and I mean Europe.

And today General Řehka also said this, he is the Chief of General Staff of the Czech Republic. They had a command assembly with the new minister and he mentioned there that the security situation is not simple and that the main danger not only for the Czech Republic, but for Europe is the Russian Federation.

And at the same time he said that many allies inform about this, that they expect the conflict between Europe and Russia between three and six years and that the time for preparation is meanwhile very narrowing.

Is this open communication, that we know you could attack us, a certain way of deterrence by us preparing? This time we won’t let you surprise us?

Deterrence Versus Defense

General Macko: It’s definitely part of that, because there’s a big difference whether you deter, discourage or whether you already have to defend yourself.

Because Ukraine was underestimated by Russia and despite that or precisely because of that Russians, because they thought they could, that nobody would prevent them and that it would be easy, because they misjudged those signals and Ukrainians‘ determination to defend themselves, so they started the war.

And now it’s completely irrelevant whether their big goals failed. The consequences are clear:

🔸We have almost 2 million wounded and fallen

🔸We have many civilian casualties

🔸We have cities in eastern Ukraine completely devastated to the ground

🔸We have destroyed infrastructure inside Ukraine

🔸We now also have damaged infrastructure in Russia

🔸We have huge economic losses that spill over in the form of energy, food and other crises to the rest of the world

🔸And of course, who is closer than Europe, which bears it harder or more

Paradox of Russian Strength

That means, if we want to prevent this, we see how Russia is doing in Ukraine and what Russia is doing. Here is such an apparent paradox – many will object that Russia can’t even properly conquer Pokrovsk, nor the Donbas in four years and why should it be a threat to us.

We still must proceed from the fact that Russia is already in a state of war mobilization:

🔸The economy is redirected to military production

🔸A third of all public expenditures go to war and the defense sector

🔸Russia adopts extraordinary financial measures

🔸Most recently President Putin basically opened back doors for possible forced conscription of reserves, meaning further waves of partial mobilizations

Moderator: So they’re going with that „we are many“ tactic again.

General Macko: Because since they can no longer recruit even for money and it’s apparently not financially sustainable, they’re already starting to openly consider forced conscription to war. Because there’s a difference when you call reserves for different wages than those recruits they get from poor regions of Russia for wages of 5000 euros per month.

Problem of Return to Normal

So when I summarize it all – Russia now has trouble finishing off Ukraine, but if Ukraine were to surrender or there were a ceasefire, Russia also has trouble returning to normal and starting to actually do normal civilian production, stopping those armaments factories.

That means, it’s perhaps advantageous for them, running. If Russia continues at this pace and our pace is slower, these are the assumptions that speak of three to five years, that Russians could dare to go further.

Russian Ambitions and Reality

Now, if Russians openly communicate that their goal is to change relations in Europe, gain greater influence in Europe and change world order, on the other hand it must be said that currently they don’t have the strength and won’t have the strength even in five years to militarily occupy all of Europe.

But they can unleash a conflict on some section, where they provoke NATO to react and will test:

1) First, whether we really keep that Article 5, whether we all stand up decisively

2) Second, that they scare with nuclear weapons – that if you defend yourselves, they’ll take part of Estonia or whatever and if you defend yourselves, they’ll immediately rattle nuclear weapons

3) And they’ll say: „But that will mean a big conflict, let’s negotiate“

4) And there they’ll already have a more advantageous negotiating position. They’ll actually have an advantage, be the one who actually dictates the topic and content of these negotiations

How to Prevent This

The only thing we can do about this – if we don’t want to find ourselves in this situation, if we don’t want to test our resilience, we must clearly and unambiguously communicate:

We must tell the Russians „We are already taking measures, arming ourselves, preparing, we see you, what you’re doing, we understand what you want, but we won’t allow you to do it and we’ll be ready.“

International Communication

And this is communication not only by Karel Řehka, this is communication by Estonian defense minister, who clearly stated that:

„You know what, if you tried to attack at least part of our territory, we’ll strike deep right on the first day we’ll strike back right deep into Russian territory, so you realize you’re opening a big war.“

That means, it’s important and it must be credible, because the whole problem is that as soon as we question our unity and determination in various our discussions, as also at the Munich Conference – we see that there’s actually a West-West dispute, the United States pursues a somewhat different policy.

As soon as we send signals that it might not be so, that Article 5 might not apply, then it can eventually happen that we unite very quickly and react harshly, but the aggressor misjudged it based on our preceding communication and disputes and would resort to aggression. Thereby you’re in such escalation that always threatens to get out of control.

Moderator: While we were talking, we also had a map of the so-called Suwalki Gap. This is a place that should be such an Achilles‘ heel. Why?

Suwalki Gap – Strategic Vulnerability

General Macko: When we look at that map, we actually see that Belarus is part of a union state with Russia:

🔸Today Russians have their nuclear weapons deployed there

🔸They have their bases deployed there

🔸It’s more or less a puppet government that serves in favor of the Russian Federation

🔸After all, Belarusian territory was also used for aggression into Ukraine

Geographic Situation

This, what we see on the map between Kaliningrad Oblast – which is such an enclave, a remnant of what was once East Prussia, which the Russians controlled – and Belarus is the so-called „Suwalki Gap“ according to the town of Suwalki.

It’s roughly a 100 km section and Russians have a so-called A2AD strategy – anti-access area denial. That means, when we look at it, even within the range of rocket artillery – that means that rocket artillery, but also artillery – a large part is under fire control from the territory of Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus.

Baltic Vulnerability

So when I take countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, they are vulnerable from the perspective that we can only support them by sea. This is of course always risky. The entry of Finland and Sweden has significantly improved the situation, but we can’t really support them much by land.

Many institutions, think tanks have done studies on this. When I commanded the training center, we did scenarios of what it would mean. We modeled it.

Defense Problem

The problem is that if we don’t have permanently such large forces in the Baltics that could defend the Baltics in that clear flat terrain from Russia’s initial assault, we must bring in reinforcements.

And when we want to do this, we must strengthen border defense there to gain time. That’s also what they’re doing:

🔸Making terrain obstacles

🔸Building those defensive ramparts

🔸Trying to make a drone wall

But there’s still that Suwalki Gap, where Russians within such provocation would try – they could try to either directly enter that space and occupy it, or keep it under fire control, so that we couldn’t bring additional reinforcements in favor of these Baltic countries.

And that would be the moment of that blackmail. Moreover, they probably also have nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad.

Analogous Situations

Russians had the same thing in the Black Sea, for example. That’s why Crimea is important for them, because from Crimea they control practically – within missile and aircraft range is the entire Black Sea. They can hit the Bosphorus strait if needed.

And simply this is Russian strategy, which even with smaller forces allows them to control that certain part of the chessboard or map. In this case it’s that Suwalki Gap.

That’s why it’s very important what measures we take and how we could prevent Russians from occupying the Baltics – we must think about it – how we could counter such Russian effort to actually isolate the rest of the Baltics.

Moderator: You mentioned that Russians are already thinking about where to mobilize more soldiers. Mark Rutte in Munich mentioned that about 30,000 soldiers fell there in the last month. The previous month they mentioned basically the same number.

We know that Russia could definitely get some soldiers. It’s a big country. They know, they could handle it. What’s worse are finances.

And now there’s talk about the state fund in Russia, which analysts estimate that from this fund they somehow finance the war and that this fund could last only a year and a half at higher oil prices, maybe 2.5 years.

Do finances have any fundamental impact on when this war will end? And could we perhaps rely on Russia simply running out of money?

Economic Factor in War

General Macko: Since we are in a stage of attrition warfare, it has absolutely fundamental impact, because in attrition warfare there is gradual consumption of personnel and resources for conducting war.

Ukrainians try to replace this with technologization, robots, drones. But you need resources for it.

Standard Scenario

That means, normally it would be that if these countries were in an isolated system, one or the other country would collapse and of course the one with smaller economic, human potential has a greater chance to collapse.

But Ukraine supported by the West has behind it the greater potential. Although the willingness to give maximum support is complicated. We see how difficult it is for even those financial packages to support Ukraine to pass.

Russian Support

On the other hand, Russia receives support from North Korea – we already mentioned that the source has significantly diminished there. China also only gives that support to a certain extent.

American sanctions are a tool despite Americans having such fluctuations in that pressure – sometimes they pressure Ukraine to quickly conclude peace, sometimes the Russians – but still the law was passed in Congress.

We see that:

🔸They confiscate tankers

🔸European countries have also started confiscating tankers of that illegal shadow fleet, which quietly under false flags creates the flow of these Russian products

They try to take away these resources and indeed in history all these attrition, exhaustion conflicts ended on economics, on logistics.

Historical Parallels

After all, World War II was decided on battlefields, but actually both World War I and World War II were decided by economic potential.

Americans at the end of the war both supplied enormous amounts of aid to the Soviets. They deployed the army themselves. But when we look at production, Germans were cut off from oil sources – the main ones. They were gradually cut off from those production capacities and actually on the other hand Americans produced hundreds to thousands of aircraft. That was already such a force that even mathematically Germans couldn’t withstand. It was only a matter of time when they would collapse.

Of course, Germans were broken rather on the battlefield, but here it can be predicted that this time will come.

Uncertainty in Russian Economy

Because the question is that we don’t know the real depth of problems in Russia, just as we didn’t know the actual strength of their army, which looked great on Red Square and in reality turned out not to be that good.

That means also in that economy so far Russians try to keep it under the lid. We know they have high interest rates. They try to make counter-pressure to that. But that cushion is shrinking and those markets are also shrinking.

Compensatory Strategies

They try to compensate somewhere in Africa, but that lucrative West, that’s what sustained them long-term and those reserves in the fund will run out one day.

On the other hand Russians still have great raw material potential. They can still place their production somewhere. So it will also depend on how strong those sanctions will be.

Positive signals

We can see that India, for example, is moving away from oil products from Russia. It is not possible either overnight or technically, but it is gradually happening and it is being replaced by other sources.

That is, there is a quite realistic assumption that despite the size of Russia and despite the numerical superiority, with good measures, it is far from guaranteed that Russia will win this war of attrition. On the contrary, Ukraine has a better chance if the support of the West endures.

Conditions for success

But, of course, this is also conditional on political support and we see that the Russians are intensively trying to influence the political events, to divide us in some way, to undermine that unity, because this is what actually keeps Ukraine alive and makes it a disadvantageous position for the Russians.

Moderator: We believe that the more positive words from this will fall on fertile ground and that Russia will not really win this war. In any case, it will probably take a while and we will certainly not see each other for the last time. Thank you very much for taking the time.

General Macko: Thank you for the invitation. I would very much like to come up with a different topic. Here it is only necessary to say that let’s hope that the Russians will understand that they have nothing more to gain in that war, that some few square kilometers for the next years of fighting will not pay off for them.

Moderator: Thank you very much. My guest was Lieutenant General Pavel Macko, retired. Thank you again for taking the time to follow us for four years.

General Macko: Thank you for the invitation.

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Marco Rubio represents the highest-ranking American representative at this year’s conference. His speech was intended to serve as a tone correction after last year’s chaotic performance by J.D. Vance. Rubio finds himself in a challenging position where he must appease Europe while simultaneously maintaining the hard line of Donald Trump’s administration.

What did he say?

The civilized tone compared to Vance represented the first key element of his appearance. Recent disputes with allies, the fiasco of aggressive policy toward Greenland, criticism for dismantling the international system and demolishing transatlantic relations, together with the shocking report published by MSC about the demolition of the international system by the US administration, literally demanded a significant correction of approach.

Rubio devoted the largest part of his speech to returning to shared history and emphasizing the common civilizational path and shared values. In this way, he tried to refute partners‘ feeling that the USA is destroying rules and burning bridges behind them. He paraphrased it with the words: „The USA may dominate the western hemisphere, but we are still children of Europe.“

The second significant element was the rejection of the narrative that the USA is destroying international order. According to Rubio’s argumentation, the rules-based world system, free movement of people, liberalism, and climate agenda were incorrectly set up, are now broken, and our enemies have exploited them for their growth. They used them unfairly while we deindustrialized. According to him, the USA is not destroying the system but wants to build a new system that corresponds to the new geopolitical reality. Europe should join this process. He paraphrased it as: „We must build our own Western raw material supply chain independent from other centers of power.“

The third point was justification of steps toward Iran and Venezuela as necessary. The USA had to act because the world is failing. The UN and world community did not prevent the tragedy in Gaza or Ukraine, they didn’t even stop attempts to acquire nuclear weapons by the ayatollahs. Other powers outside the West are abusing the poorly set international system. The global world order needs to be redefined anew and fairly – competition of powers is reality and has replaced the system based on „poorly set“ rules.

The fourth element was emphasis on Christian heritage, character of civilization, and conservative values as defense of the ideology of the current American administration. According to Rubio, the USA is not a disruptor but a consistent defender of these fundamental values.

The fifth point concerned the complete failure of the UN, due to which the USA must act and invites partners to do so. It is necessary to reevaluate international formats and alliances. The USA wants a strong alliance with European allies, but not at any cost. It is desirable for Europe to be strong and thus strengthen our common Western civilization alongside the USA. He paraphrased it with the words: „The purpose of our alliance is to defend citizens, our countries and our interests, the meaning of the Alliance’s existence is not protection of the welfare state.“

It should be noted that pressure on increasing defense spending and fairer distribution of the burden of common defense was not so strong and straightforward, but rather implied.

The sixth point was assurance of US commitment to NATO, but with conditions. Europe must add more effort. The goal of the USA is not the end of the Transatlantic era. Europe must have means to be able to defend itself.

Conclusions and assessment

Regarding conclusions and assessment, the performance was good to listen to, but reality is far harsher. Messages about alliance with Europe were strong and clearly articulated. However, unpredictable steps by President Trump and his administration, absence of any transparent discussion with partners, and even threats of using military force against an ally relativize this and return us to harsh reality.

About Marco Rubio’s real priorities, which are in conflict with his speech, the cancellation of participation in the meeting with Zelensky and his allies testifies. Diplomatic talk about a packed schedule is a poor excuse. What had higher priority than this meeting with allies and Zelensky?

Europe must stand on its own feet. This will not spoil anything, it will be a better and more balanced partner to the USA. If American real politics would tear to pieces soaring speeches like Rubio’s, at least we won’t be left empty-handed.

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#EU #NATO #reflexive control #Russia #Russian Nuclear Threats #Russian War of Aggression #Ukraine

In the civilized world, it’s the opposite, we should help the victim of a rapist. Today’s Russia does not belong to the civilized world and should be treated as a depraved rapist.

Putin’s Russia has 1/7 of the world and all the resources to be a successful and attractive country without war crimes, pressure and nuclear terrorism. But it is led by the biggest thugs and mass murderers since Adolf Hitler. They have pillaged their own country and cover up their inability to improve it with military aggression against their neighbors.

They show us a miraculous nuclear torpedo, a miraculous cruise missile, presenting their country as an Empire of miracles. But the conquest of the small town of Pokrovsk has already taken them almost two years. Now they cry that it’s all the fault of the defending Ukraine and those who, in my opinion, still provide insufficient material help to Ukraine.

Russia’s criminal war in Ukraine has been illegitimate from the very beginning, is in deep contradiction with the UN Charter, and has been condemned twice by the UN General Assembly. Russia should have long had its membership in the UN Security Council suspended and been given a clear ultimatum to end the military aggression. Instead, the hypocritical world watches the continuing Russian madness on the threshold of the extermination of humanity.

There is no Ukrainian crisis, just the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Russia started the war in Ukraine and Russia is prolonging it despite the fact that it evidently cannot win it. Moscow’s criminals are the greatest threat to the human race in history and have decided to play Russian roulette with the world. Yet they know well that an unjust war cannot be won. Hitler did not win it in the USSR, and neither will Putin win it in Ukraine.

To end the war, it is enough for the war criminals around Putin to stop sending Russian soldiers and recruited desperate people from all over the world to their deaths, to issue an order to end the war. Within 24 hours, there will be peace!

The post Insane Russia wants to control humanity? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#NATO #Putin #Rusko #Trump #Trumpove ultimátum #Ukrajina #USA #Vojna na Ukrajine

O vojenských a politických dôsledkoch súčasnej situácie na Ukrajine sa rozprávame s generálom Pavlom Mackom.

Rozhovor s generálom Pavlom Mackom

Moderátor: Vítajte vo vysielaní JOJ24. Dobrý večer prajem. Pán generál, prečo sa Rusi odhodlali na takýto mohutný útok práve v tomto čase?

Generál Macko: Rusi cyklicky teraz každý týždeň vykonávajú minimálne jeden veľký útok na Kyjev. Teraz je to aj v situácii, že je uprostred letnej bojovej sezóny, zároveň beží nejaké ultimátum, ktoré si oni zľahčujú, a napriek tomu chcú v maximálnej možnej miere poškodiť ukrajinskú infraštruktúru. Chcú zasiahnuť čo najviac cieľov a využívajú na to aj takéto mohutné kombinované útoky.

Ten dnešný útok nebol v tomto výnimočný, keďže je to cyklické, ako som povedal – tie rekordy sú lámané každú chvíľu. Čo by sa ale dalo zdôrazniť je, že po prvýkrát útok začal masívnym náletom dronov zo všetkých smerov na Kyjev. To malo zasýtiť systém protivzdušnej obrany a následne nasledovalo odpaľovanie rakiet z plochého letu Iskander-K.

Tie sú podobné ako balistické rakety Iskander, len tieto letia v nízkej letovej hladine nad zemou. Sú to veľmi presné rakety, ktoré majú štandardne presnosť menej ako 5 metrov. A keďže vidíme, čo zasiahli, tak je jasné, že toto bol úplne vedomý zásah Ruska do civilnej oblasti, pretože okrem toho paneláku, ktorý bol zničený, všade okolo boli len ďalšie civilné objekty. Takže akýkoľvek omyl alebo náhoda je vylúčená. Skrátka, urobili to zámerne.

Ruská vojenská doktrína a ničenie civilnej infraštruktúry

Dôvod je taký, že Rusi síce nemajú formálne v doktrínach to, že by mohli porušovať Ženevské konvencie a útočiť na civilné ciele, ale majú vo vojenskej doktrínе ničenie civilnej infraštruktúry – či už dopravnej alebo energetickej. Používajú to ako nástroj na podlomenie vôle, ako súčasť psychologickej vojny a zároveň nástroj politického nátlaku.

To, že to nefunguje, je druhá vec, ale jednoducho v tom portfóliu možností, ktoré majú k dispozícii, Rusi aj toto použili. Takto aj ten „Orešnik“ na Dnipro, kde je to s veľkým rozptylom – naopak, nevie presne trafiť – a takisto má spôsobiť čo najväčšie škody, chaos a paniku uprostred mesta.

Snažia sa naznačiť, že budú pokračovať v útokoch, že tie sa budú stupňovať a že sa Ukrajinci nemajú spoliehať na nejaké sankcie alebo sekundárne sankcie či medzinárodný tlak. Jediná šanca – to je taký odkaz Ruska – je, aby sa Ukrajinci vzdali, vyhoveli ruským podmienkam, a možno potom Rusi zmenia prístup.

Moderátor: V ostatných mesiacoch Rusko stupňuje útoky aj na ukrajinské mestá a obce ležiace ďaleko za frontovou líniou. Ide o taktiku Ruska a k čomu smeruje?

Generál Macko: Toto je to, čo som už naznačil. Oni to robia od začiatku konfliktu, ale samozrejme tým, ako postupne ukrajinská protivzdušná obrana slabne a ako Rusi postupne nachádzajú taktické postupy, ako urobiť útoky účinnejšie, sledujú tým presne vyvolanie paniky a chaosu v celej krajine a samozrejme oslabovanie infraštruktúry.

Snaha oslabiť ukrajinskú ekonomiku a zbrojný priemysel

To je aj jeden dôležitý aspekt. Ukrajina čoraz viac vyrába prostriedky na obranu vo vlastnej réžii. Na to samozrejme potrebuje energiu, na to potrebuje továrne. Tie vojenské sú väčšinou podzemné a sú dobre chránené ešte zo sovietskej éry – Ukrajina bola takou zbrojovkou Sovietskeho zväzu. Ale samozrejme existujú dodávateľské reťazce, existujú aj bežné fabriky.

Tým pádom sa Rusi snažia v maximálnej možnej miere narušovať práve túto ukrajinskú ekonomiku, „podrezať jej žily“, aby ekonomika nedokázala generovať toľko obranných prostriedkov. To robí Ukrajinu menej závislú na vonkajších dodávkach a menej závislú na politických rozhodovaniach a cykloch v rámci tých vonkajších dodávok, keďže sme videli, že opakovane boli dodávky prerušované.

Takže toto je takisto kľúčový cieľ Ruska – ak útočia niekde do strednej alebo západnej Ukrajiny, útočia práve s cieľom narušiť v maximálnej možnej miere chod ukrajinskej ekonomiky a predovšetkým toho vojensko-priemyselného komplexu.

Moderátor: Mohlo byť katalyzátorom ruského útoku aj Trumpovo skrátené ultimátum? Rusi ho razantne odmietli. Aká bude podľa vás reakcia americkej administratívy?

Trump, sankcie a reakcia USA

Generál Macko: Začnem úvahou o tom, či to bola reakcia. Rusi systematicky stupňovali tieto útoky, takže ťažko povedať. Bola by to špekulácia, keby som povedal, že teraz vlastne vyslali signály aj Trumpovi. Oni to robia systematicky od začiatku roka a robia to aj od nástupu Trumpa k moci.

Po tom, čo odmietli v apríli možné prímerie a ponuky na prímerie, Rusi začali stupňovať tlak. Tým pádom sa snažia niečo urobiť s konfliktom. Zrejme majú tiež svoje vlastné ekonomické problémy.

Pokiaľ sa bavíme o ultimáte prezidenta Trumpa, on sa do určitej miery dostal do pasce svojich vyhlásení. To znamená, že bude musieť niečo urobiť. Teraz pohrozil sekundárnymi sankciami – to znamená sankciami na všetky krajiny, ktoré budú kupovať od Rusov určené výrobky, ktoré budú predmetom sankcií, keďže samotné Spojené štáty ich veľa neodoberajú.

Tu je problém, kde minimálne s Čínou to môže skončiť tak, že Trump nedokáže toto presadiť a Čína bude aj naďalej kupovať ropu z Ruska aj plyn. A pokiaľ by Američania prišli s tými sankciami, znovu sa otvorí kapitola tarifnej a obchodnej vojny.

Trump naznačil aj veľmi tvrdý postoj voči Indii, kde to minimálne vyzerá tak, že by mohol naozaj zaviesť sekundárne tarify a že tie vyjednávania môžu byť veľmi tvrdé. India, napriek tomu, že v posledných rokoch si budovala lepšie vzťahy so Spojenými štátmi, veľmi intenzívne obchoduje nielen so zbrojárskymi produktmi, ale aj s ropnými produktmi s Ruskom. To samozrejme podkopáva túto snahu Donalda Trumpa donútiť Rusko k ukončeniu bojov a zasadnutiu za mierový stôl.

Pripravovaná americká podpora Ukrajine

Je tu ale aj ďalší aspekt – Donald Trump si zrejme pripravuje pôdu aj na radikálnejšie oznámenie ďalších dodávok zbrojných systémov pre Ukrajinu, a to aj ofenzívnych zbrojných systémov. Momentálne je v Kongrese návrh zákona v Senáte, ktorý by mal umožniť pravidelný model financovania a zásobovania ukrajinských síl americkými zbraňami cez spojencov v NATO, kde ročne by na tento typ podpory malo ísť minimálne 8 miliárd dolárov.

Moderátor: Ako ste už sami spomenuli, Ukrajina čelí letnej ofenzíve, počas ktorej ruské sily dosahujú postupy v oblastiach, ktoré boli od začiatku vojny relatívne ušetrené. Moskva oznámila, že jej jednotky dobyli mesto Časivjar, ktoré bolo dôležitým oporným bodom ukrajinskej armády na východe krajiny. Čo to možno znamená pre vyjednávacie pozície Ukrajiny a pre ďalší vývoj konfliktu?

Význam dobytia Časiv Jaru a situácia na fronte

Generál Macko: Zásadným spôsobom to zatiaľ nemení situáciu, pretože o Časiv Jar prebiehali boje už 16 mesiacov, takže mesto je totálne zničené. Bavíme sa o mestečku veľkosti Holíča alebo Šamorína – 12-tisícové mesto, ktoré vlastne Rusi dobýjali 16 mesiacov. Reálne boje o Časiv Jar prebiehali už od pádu Bachmutu v máji 2023, čo znamená viac než dva roky, pretože prvá fáza bola dostať sa na Donbasský vodný kanál, ktorý bol akousi prirodzenou bariérou na hranici Časiv Jaru. Keď ho Rusi prekonali, tak ďalších 16 mesiacov dobýjali mesto.

Podobná je situácia v Kupiansku, kde viac ako rok sa Rusi snažia dobiť mesto. Rovnako je to pri Pokrovsku, v Torecku – tam sú v meste, ale bojuje sa o mesto tiež už vyše roka.

To znamená, aj keby Rusi tieto mestá dobyli, aj keby sa dobytie Časiv Jaru potvrdilo, tak by im to takticky dalo výhodnú pozíciu. Je tam vyšší terén, ktorý poskytuje dobrý výhľad na okolie. Mohli by ďalej útočiť na Konstantinivku, a keby aj tú získali, otvorili by si vstupnú bránu pre väčšie zoskupenie vojsk, ktoré ale zatiaľ nikde nevidíme. Museli by ho odniekiaľ presunúť, a potom by mohli začať útočiť v smere na Kramatorsk a Slaviansk.

Limity ruského postupu a vyjednávacie pozície

Ale aj keby sa im toto darilo, tak vyjednávacia pozícia Ruska je v tom, že oni stále žiadajú, aby Ukrajina odstúpila aj doteraz neokupované časti, ktoré buď vôbec nikdy neokupovali, ako Slaviansk, Kramatorsk alebo Záporožie, alebo ktoré okupovali dočasne, ako Cherson, odkiaľ boli vytlačení.

To znamená, že vyjednávacia pozícia sa nejakým zásadným spôsobom nezmení. Rusi by potrebovali väčší prielom, aby obsadili zvyšok Donbasu, ale zatiaľ to nevyzerá, že by na to mali kapacitu – pokiaľ Ukrajinci neurobia nejakú obrovskú chybu. Žiadne operačné rezervy, nejaké väčšie zoskupenie vojsk, ktoré by bolo niekde blízko frontovej línie a vyčkávalo na nasadenie tam, kde sa podarí prelomiť frontovú líniu, také nevidíme.

To znamená, že aj keby Rusi prelomili frontovú líniu, budú viac-menej prioritizovať a zoberú z niektorých iných častí frontového úseku vojská a rýchlo posilnia oblasť prielomu. To ale samozrejme trvá nejaký čas a dáva to čas aj Ukrajincom na preskupenie síl.

Ruská taktika a pomalý postup

Rusi skrátka využívajú to, že majú početnú prevahu a že Ukrajinci majú problém s personálom, ktorý kompenzujú väčším nasadením dronov. Rusi vrhajú všetky sily do bojov, ale postup je relatívne pomalý. Pri väčších mestách si vytvárajú podmienky na ich obkľúčenie a potom postupné dobíjanie, ale zatiaľ to nie je náznak nejakej dramatickej rýchlosti v zmysle postupu desiatok kilometrov denne.

Moderátor: Hovoril generál Pavel Macko. Ďakujem za rozhovor a váš čas. Dovidenia.

Generál Macko: Ďakujem za pozvanie, príjemný večer.

Moderátor: Divákom ešte dodám, že celý rozhovor si môžete pozrieť aj na našej stránke joj24.sk v sekcii Studio JOJ24.

Videozáznam rozhovoru si môžete pozrieť aj tu:

https://youtu.be/r8Tzk3clOzg?si=o_MQftNYt1d7hfG9

Čítajte aj:

https://pavelmacko.sk/2025/08/01/kyjev-celil-jednemu-z-najvacsich-utokov-za-posledne-tyzdne/

https://pavelmacko.sk/2025/07/30/prelomia-rusi-ukrajinsku-obranu-alebo-ustupia-ultimatu/

https://pavelmacko.sk/2025/04/27/analyza-je-na-dosah-trvaly-a-spravodlivy-mier/

The post Provokuje Rusko prezidenta Trumpa? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

But fighting without vision and strategy is not enough. It’s important to know why we fight and what we fight for.

#EU #NATO #Putin #Russia #Trump #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Zelensky

Pavel Macko reporting for Týždeň magazine. Full transcript of the podcast https://youtu.be/GmSQTqTEAQA?si=QePWcXi8HiZLAVVC

Eve of War

In Europe, at the beginning of 2022, we sensed that something terrible was brewing, but most of us didn’t want to admit it. Neither citizens nor politicians. We were still enjoying the euphoria of three-quarters of a century of peace and over three decades of general freedom.

The public and politicians not only in the Baltic states but throughout Europe anxiously watched Russian maneuvers around Ukraine’s borders. They also perceived the continuing diversionary actions of Russian intelligence services and „vacationing“ soldiers in eastern Ukraine. These were accompanied by artificial hysteria about an impending Ukrainian attack on two separatist republics.

Russia had more than 100,000 armed soldiers on the borders, bringing in blood supplies, field hospitals, and additional troops. Meanwhile, pro-Russian collaborators there were already talking about a Ukrainian invasion in autumn 2021 and organizing forced evacuation of the population. Ukrainians showed not even a hint of any troop regrouping. President Zelensky even downplayed warnings from Western intelligence services.

After Russian ultimatums in December 2021, when they demanded Ukraine’s disarmament and its reintegration into the „Russian world,“ as well as the annulment of NATO expansion after 1997, the tension was palpable. But few could imagine a major war. It made sense to no one except Putin.

Slovak Anomaly

Slovakia was already an anomaly on a global scale at that time. Politicians of today’s ruling coalition organized protests and, under the pretext of peace, openly supported Russian aggression and demands. They even accused the West, especially the USA, of trying to provoke aggression against Russia. They organized a hunt against our MPs for supporting the defense agreement with the USA and threatened, together with today’s department head, a general strike. All in support of Russian interests, not Slovak ones.

Whether they did so out of complete confusion or were coordinated from the Russian embassy may one day be discovered by historians and investigators. Today, these are under the thumb of Maroš Žilinka, who as late as February 8, 2022, threatened parliamentarians with „the judgment of history“ for not wanting to hear his desperate fight against the agreement with the USA. Just before that, he praised the benefits of Soviet occupation.

Fight for Independence and Freedom

In July, we commemorate the anniversary of the American Revolution – the war for independence that culminated in the declaration of independence of American colonies. Since then, July 4 has been Independence Day in the USA. The French Revolution began with an attack on the Bastille and was a war for freedom. The French commemorate July 14 as Bastille Day.

Ukrainians today are fighting a combined war – for the bare existence of their own nation and their own free state. How this war turns out will determine our future history. In Slovakia’s case, probably also the existence of our state in its current form and borders.

Let’s analyze in two parts what happened, what is still happening, and what it means for Europe and Slovakia. What we have believed in so far is gradually disappearing, fears are being fulfilled.

Historical Parallels and Putin’s Strategy

To many people, President Putin’s approach just before the invasion of Ukraine resembled Hitler’s strategy during the Munich Dictate. Historical parallels are always somewhat flawed, but there might be something to it.

Russia had been conducting hybrid operations for a long time to prepare the international audience for a new reality. After the West’s strategic blunder of ending operations in Afghanistan and the massive disruption of normal life during COVID, Russia gained the impression that the West was tired. They thought it was self-absorbed and people were frightened of losing comfort.

Political leaders were at odds and trying to solve one cascading crisis after another, as well as strategic adaptation to rapid climate change. For Russia, like all autocratic regimes, this was a secondary matter. The primary concern is maintaining and strengthening power.

Ukraine and the entire West were strategically disturbed, unable to concentrate on the existential threat. The Russians evaluated this as an opportunity to capitalize on long-term disruptive activities in the world, into which they had invested billions of dollars for years.

Putin’s Ultimatum

But Putin’s ultimatum failed. Not so much because the West felt strong and united. Rather, they underestimated Putin and his determination.

The nearly 200,000 troops around Ukraine in late January 2022 looked threatening but not convincing enough that Russia could really engage in a major war. So the US rejected Putin’s ultimatum.

He maneuvered himself into a situation where he didn’t have many options left:

◾️Either admit he was bluffing and his costly show of force didn’t work

◾️Or attempt a lightning action, this time with the risk of high losses compared to the occupation of Crimea without a shot

But if he quickly achieved strategic goals, he would be able to politically sell it to his domestic and international audience. The West and the rest of the world would, according to Putin’s reasoning, come to terms with the new reality.

Beginning of the Invasion

The order to start the invasion came. In the early morning hours, around 5 AM on February 24, 2022, a large-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

Similar to Hitler, who attacked Poland early in the morning at 4:45 AM on September 1, 1939, Putin counted on a Blitzkrieg – a rapid advance into Ukraine’s interior and its rapid collapse.

Like the Nazis in Poland, the Russians quickly attacked Ukraine from three strategic directions:

◾️From the north toward Kyiv

◾️From the east toward Kharkiv and Donbas

◾️ In the south to Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and further along the Mykolaiv-Odesa axis

The entire maneuver was supported from the first minutes by strategic bombing of key defensive points and critical infrastructure. The cherry on top was to be a strategic airborne operation in Hostomel and the rapid occupation of Kyiv’s center and key political-administrative facilities.

Stalled Blitzkrieg

An exemplary lightning chess game, which the Russians had doctrinally and practically rehearsed and tested multiple times in the post-World War II period. It always went smoothly. Now the Russians suddenly got stuck.

Although the media still talks about a „three-day war,“ according to available information, the Russians had planned the entire operation for 10 days. In 10 days, they wanted to control not only Kyiv but the entire Ukraine, break its armed resistance, install a puppet government, suppress resistance hotspots, and stabilize the situation. This is what empires have been doing for centuries in rebellious provinces or with disobedient small neighbors. They know that any long conflict is exhausting and a strategic risk.

All of this failed for the Russians. The world was shocked not only that the Russians engaged in a war we haven’t seen since 1945 – that is, a war where a strong opponent attacks a relatively large neighbor with all means, who effectively defends itself.

Strategic Shocks for Russia

The Russians experienced several strategic shocks and couldn’t withdraw from the conflict in time. Regardless of the current state on the battlefield after more than three years, they strategically lost at the beginning. But they can still gain operational and tactical victory at an enormous cost.

First Strategic Shock

The biggest strategic shock for the Russians was that Ukrainians began to spontaneously defend themselves – ordinary citizens with Molotov cocktails. What was an advantage for the Russians – an attack on a more than 2,200-kilometer-long front, which was to ensure the overloading of Ukrainian defense and rapid collapse – turned into a Russian nightmare.

Their own troops became overloaded, their logistics failed, they couldn’t generate what everyone expected from a military superpower: massive dynamic combined arms maneuvers of large military formations with full support from the air, artillery, and mobility.

Second Strategic Shock

The second strategic shock for the Russians was the rejection of the invasion by Russian-speaking Ukrainians. The entire „liberating“ myth about the invasion fell.

Third Strategic Shock

The third strategic shock for the Russians was the vigorous and unified approach of the EU and NATO, which managed to respond within 24 hours with a clear political message. This then gradually transformed into breaking the barrier of fear of Russia and gradual aid to bleeding Ukraine.

Long Exhausting War

Instead of a lightning conquest of Ukraine, the Russians ended up in a long exhausting war. Ukrainians are fighting for bare survival.

Meanwhile, this war, with more than a million human casualties on the Russian side alone, has turned into a war of survival for the Russians as well. First and foremost, it’s about the survival of Putin’s regime and Putin personally. In the long term, it’s also about the survival of Russia as a strong and respected empire.

Russia is being exhausted, internal tension is growing, and on its borders, it has not only increasingly sovereign former colonies but also a numerically superior and economically stronger China.

Despite the failure of the lightning war, the Russians managed to destroy hope for a peaceful life in Europe. The Russians totally destroyed the post-war model of peaceful coexistence of countries and the OSCE security mechanism. There is a deep furrow not only between Russia and Ukraine but also between Russia and the West. Unfortunately, this is also within our societies. It is a consequence of the long-term hybrid war that the Russians are waging against us.

Life in a Different World

On February 24, 2022, in my very first media commentary on the beginning war, I expressed the opinion that regardless of whether the Russian invasion ends the next day or lasts for years, from 2/24/2022, we live in a different world, and our children will probably never experience the era of relaxation like all of us after November 1989. War is returning as a common political-historical phenomenon into our lives.

That’s why it’s important to analyze what happened, what is happening, and where it might lead. The Russian war in Ukraine has and will have a transformative effect on warfare and socio-political conditions for the next generations.

From Blitzkrieg to Gradual Dying Out

The war still continues. But it already is and will be a source of numerous studies and analyses. It will shape an entire generation of politicians, soldiers, and experts. I myself had the opportunity to participate in one of the first extensive studies. Our international three-member team attempted to generalize the lessons from the first ten months of the war. We provocatively named the report „How to Defeat Russia.“

Another two years have passed since then, and dozens of similar analyses have appeared. The situation on the battlefield has also changed and continues to evolve.

Distorted Intelligence Information

The Russian invasion was based on distorted intelligence information and poor strategic assessment. Putin was hungry for war, and no one had the courage to tell him that Russia, despite the relative weakness of Ukraine, was not prepared for a major war.

The Russians calculated that the population would quickly reconcile with the fall of Zelensky and Russian power. The Russians had practiced combat operations for several months, but they were not prepared for real combat.

Logistics Failure

The structure of Russian logistics was not adapted to conducting intensive combat operations for a longer period on foreign territory. The Russians had their so-called operational logistics outsourced to a state civilian company at that time.

At the tactical level, Russian troops carried with them only two calculation days of supplies at the battalion and at the brigade or regiment level. This was far from enough for the tens to hundreds of kilometers of advances in the first days. NATO has up to seven days of supplies at the same level.

Ukrainian tactics and weather also played their part. The Russian war machine got stuck. The rapid conquest of Ukraine turned into long-term battles in multiple dimensions.

Moreover, despite strategic bombing, the Russians failed to suppress Ukrainian air defense and gain air superiority. This has marked the entire course of the war so far.

Three Phases of the War

If we take into account the key factors and the prevailing character of activities, we can talk about three phases of the war.

First Phase (2022)

The first phase of the war took place in 2022. Briefly, it can be said that the Russians suffered a Ukrainian defensive shock, and Ukraine’s counteroffensive repelled the Russian advance at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson.

Ukrainians even rapidly liberated a large part of the occupied territories, pushing the Russians into heavy defense. They had to resort to partial mobilization to prevent the collapse of front lines in southern Ukraine.

Western aid increased sharply, allowing precise strikes and recapturing territory. But Ukrainians partly became victims of their own success, and by the end of 2022, aid slowed down.

Second Phase (2023)

The second phase took place in 2023. Ukraine maintained tactical initiative almost the entire year but failed to turn it into operationally significant success. A stalemate ensued.

Russia strategically adapted, abandoned ideas of a quick victory, and dug in in eastern and southern Ukraine. Surovikin’s multi-layered line was too tough a nut to crack for Ukraine’s limited offensive formation.

Ukraine’s summer offensive stalled amid fortified lines saturated with a new generation of Russian drones. Ukraine shifted toward attrition warfare. What normally serves to shape the operational environment became the main content of combat activities aimed at logistics, command centers, and the enemy’s rear infrastructure.

It was confirmed that recapturing one’s own occupied territory, if the aggressor shifts to strategic defense, is extremely difficult.

Third Phase (2024 – Present)

The third phase of the war has been ongoing from the beginning of 2024 until now. It could be called hybrid escalation and technological transformation.

Although the Russians have operational initiative all the time, they cannot perform a fundamental rapid operation that would move the battlefield. Attempts at modern combined arms maneuvers of large formations have failed; instead, tactics have shifted toward constant small tactical attacks.

The battlefield is fully transparent, nothing can be hidden, soldiers often have only 10 minutes for combat maneuver and taking a new position. Moreover, it is saturated with all-seeing and all-destroying drones.

Ukraine has expanded drone and missile attacks deep into Russian territory, for example, in the case of Kursk. Russia has intensified aerial bombing and pressure on the Donetsk and Kharkiv fronts. The battlefield is becoming increasingly fragmented, decentralized, and technologically driven.

Main Factors for Ukraine’s Survival

When the invasion began, many experts believed we were seeing an atypical war, a clash of two post-Soviet armies irrelevant to Western armies.

The truth is that in the first months of the war, Ukrainians had the tactical and doctrinal upper hand. Especially that part of the Ukrainian army that had experience with operations in Donbas and had undergone Westernization. Commanders were independent, able to make decisions flexibly according to the situation, and mastered the principles of so-called mission command, where you only assign a goal to the unit, not a rigid procedure.

Russians were the exact opposite at the beginning – rigid, unable to make independent decisions, always looking at their superior and his detailed instructions. This has changed in the meantime. Russians are learning too.

Despite this, Ukrainians have so far managed to resist regardless of Russian numerical superiority and Russian superiority in strategic weapons.

Hybrid Model of the Ukrainian Army

The Ukrainian army has evolved from post-Soviet forces into a hybrid model that combines NATO-style mission command, asymmetric tactics, and targeting with AI support.

Russia, despite failures, has also adapted its Soviet-era doctrine and strengthened it with multi-layered defense, electronic warfare, mass artillery, and finally strong air support at the line of contact.

The course of the war so far shows that if Ukraine wants to survive, it must prioritize the strategic neutralization of the stronger Russia over a decisive victory on the battlefield. Ukraine’s victory may not come in the form of a signed treaty or complete restoration of territory. Instead, it may depend on the strategic neutralization of Russia and its aggression, making Russian aggression futile, even if the war persists.

Five Key Factors for Survival and Success

From this perspective, these 5 key factors for survival and success can be identified:

1) Disabling and Denying Russian Operations

◾️Ukraine must continue to paralyze Russian offensive capacity through drone warfare, remote mining, and attacks into the strategic operational depth of the adversary

◾️Functional defeats of enemy capabilities, such as disabling a bomber base or oil infrastructure, can shift the war from attrition to operational insignificance of that Russian capability

2) Sovereignty of the Defense Industry

◾️Ukraine started in a very difficult situation. It could rely only on limited supplies from the Soviet era, a weakened defense industry, and foreign aid

◾️Today, it can produce up to 52% of its needs itself, and this share is rising despite Russian bombing

◾️Domestic production of drones, artillery, and air defense systems is essential

◾️European partners are financing Ukrainian weapons production to reduce dependence

3) Civil-Military Integration

◾️In war, not only the armed forces but the entire country is involved. Not only because rockets and drones fall everywhere, but mainly because Ukraine correctly introduced the concept of total defense and resilience

◾️Territorial defense forces, volunteer battalions, and civilian mobilization form the backbone of Ukraine’s resilience

◾️Protection of critical infrastructure and maintaining societal continuity are as important as success on the battlefield

◾️For example, the ability to quickly repair damaged railways and the inability of Russians to hit moving targets deep in Ukrainian territory were the main reasons why the Russians failed to stop growing foreign aid

4) Strategic Deterrence

◾️Ukraine’s victory plan has partly fallen by the wayside, especially after the advent of the Trump administration in the US

◾️But it correctly proposes a package of non-nuclear deterrence including capabilities for long-distance strikes and joint defense operations with future partners

◾️Deterrence must be credible, sustainable, and anchored in Ukraine’s post-war security architecture

5) International Support and Political Unity

◾️Continued Western assistance – financial, military, and diplomatic – is essential

◾️Ukraine’s survival depends on maintaining global attention and fighting war fatigue, especially amid changing US politics

This applies not only within Ukraine but also in Slovakia and the West. In Ukraine, our security and free existence are being fought for. If Russia succeeds, the chance that we will find ourselves under Russian control again or live in constant fear of what the Russians will do will dramatically increase. Such a state would not only have political and psychological impacts but would mainly significantly cut into our resources. It would be the end of our security and relative prosperity.

Peace is Still Not in Sight and Democracy in Crisis

„It was supposed to be resolved within 24 hours.“ It’s hard to estimate whether Donald Trump’s pre-election statements were just conscious populist lies or the self-indulgent naivety of a politician whom the Russians bailed out of problems several times as a businessman.

No one expected President Trump to actually end the war in one day, but the US administration’s approach so far has been a huge disappointment and hasn’t brought the end of the war closer. It’s nowhere in sight.

Ukrainians so far cannot push the Russians out, and they cannot defeat Ukraine. But they can cause increasing suffering to civilians. This is due to the increasingly exhausted Ukrainian air defense, periodic blocking of American aid, and the inability of Americans and the West to produce more means to combat Russian missiles, drones, and heavy bombs.

Bad American Strategy

The Americans chose a very bad strategy. Despite knowing for decades that only a tough stance works against the Russians and their expansionism, they tried to buy the Russians at the cost of unilateral pressure on Ukraine.

If it had worked, Ukrainians might not have liked it, but at least it could be said that the end justifies the means. But the exact opposite happened. Putin stopped taking the Americans and their president seriously. Behind polite diplomatic phrases is mockery and even greater arrogance and brutality from the Russians. They rejected all of Ukraine’s offers for a ceasefire and negotiation and indicate that they only accept complete capitulation of Ukraine and humiliated forgiveness from the West.

Instead of stopping the war, long-time allies quarreled because of it. Europe is putting together a coalition of the willing in case it’s no longer possible to count on the Americans. But without American capabilities, Europeans will still be players in a supporting role for a long time if it comes to direct confrontation with Russia.

NATO in Crisis

Meanwhile, the Americans are giving them (Russians) too much space. It’s not just about American pragmatism and focusing more on China as the main competitor, but also about the inability, even after more than three years, to increase production of critical systems and missiles for air defense.

The recent NATO summit thus threatened a major dispute or even catastrophe. Some European politicians like Fico and Orbán were even prematurely celebrating Russian victory and new orders in Europe.

President Trump eventually had his way. NATO countries committed to increasing defense spending up to 5% of GDP. The crisis was temporarily averted. But the commitment to increase defense spending has no clear timeline and also includes a lot of room for creative accounting. So real strengthening of defense may not come quickly enough.

Moreover, Russia’s 5th column in NATO, led by Fico, has already made it known that they won’t give an extra cent for their defense. On the contrary, even from the current 2% of GDP for defense, they will significantly cut for explicitly civilian projects and openly talk about leaving NATO.

This was founded not only for defense against the aggressive Soviet Union and today’s Russia, but was also built on common values. How long this alliance will last in times of business politics and permanent trade and tariff war between the US and the rest of the allies is unclear.

Ukraine Must Help Itself

Ukraine, fighting for its survival, will primarily have to help itself. Just as it spontaneously did from the first day and hope that then others will help it too.

Battle to the End?

Under the given circumstances, it’s important for Ukrainians and for all of us not to lose attention and not to get tired. If a solution to the conflict doesn’t come on the diplomatic field, Ukraine must endure it militarily as well.

The current situation is extremely complex. The Russians cannot significantly advance on land, but they attack all the more from the air. The intensity of Russian attacks on civilian targets and critical infrastructure is constantly rising.

Ukrainians have eliminated part of the strategic bombers, and then they have many long-range missiles from flat flight paths, but the Russians can compensate with ballistic missiles and especially long-range drones. They modernized originally Iranian drones and today can produce hundreds of them daily. In June alone, Russians launched more than 5,400 drones at Ukraine.

At the same time, the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense is gradually declining. In 2022, they could eliminate 95% of drones and 74% of missiles. Today it’s only 79% and 50%.

Situation at the Front

The Russians still have tactical and operational initiative and are pushing practically across the entire front. Fortunately, they have so far failed to capture any major city except Vuhledar. The second year, there is fighting for Kupiansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. The Russians have also approached Kostiantynivka and penetrated the edge of the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The question arises whether Ukrainians still have a chance to endure. According to my estimate and the estimate of colleague experts, they still have a chance, and mainly they have no other option.

Transformation of Warfare

Ukrainians, aware of this, are not resting on their laurels. Both sides are coming up with innovations. The character of combat has fundamentally changed. It’s not just a solution out of necessity. It’s rather a fundamental transformation of warfare.

What otherwise takes years has been shortened to months. The innovation cycle, for example, in the field of drones, lasts only 3 months. Today’s tactical advantage may be marginal or completely irrelevant by the end of the year.

Although the Russians have an apparent advantage in the amount of personnel, they are not without problems either. They cannot just deploy conscripts in operations on Ukrainian territory. Training new contracted or called-up soldiers is complicated on both sides, and neither side has enough instructors.

Ukraine is more vulnerable in that training takes place in a war zone, but it can compensate for this with training from its allies and supporters.

Ukrainian Capabilities

Ukraine still has approximately 1 million men and women in arms, who are tired from long-term deployment but also have greater motivation.

Ukraine can produce more and more weapons systems by itself. For example, they can produce up to 250 self-propelled howitzers annually, which is more than all of NATO combined. Despite the massive use of drones, heavy equipment and artillery are still needed. Only the way they are used is changing.

Ukraine is gradually increasing the capacity of its air force with donated F-16 fighters and French Mirage 2000-5F fighters. The fact that they have already lost three of them is not a catastrophe but proof that they are using them more frequently and riskily.

Technological Edge

Despite significant Russian numerical, economic, raw material, and technological superiority, Ukrainians manage to keep pace with them and achieve technological excellence.

Ukraine is today a global leader in the production and use of drones. They have achieved absolute excellence with the help of Western companies in the field of artificial intelligence utilization.

An innovative way of processing data in the cloud and digitalizing the use of relatively outdated technology has brought a dramatic change in the field of target determination, targeting, and their destruction. Even with a smaller number of weapons systems of varying quality, they can achieve extremely effective fire destruction.

Strategic Asymmetry

The greatest advantage of Ukrainians lies in their strategic approach to changing doctrine. Aware of Russian numerical superiority and the unavailability of some strategic weapons and means with operational reach, Ukrainians focused on strategic asymmetry in their military operations.

They focus on mobility, deep precise strikes, and increasingly use guerrilla warfare and special forces operations deep in Russian territory. They have made the protection of air and sea routes and the long-term building of their own capabilities and capacities a strategic priority.

Despite long-term political fatigue from the war and the unpredictability of Americans, they can still rely on their allies. Support from countries of the Ramstein format continues to function, and partners help finance Ukrainian armament programs or technology transfer.

Self-Preservation Instinct and Will of the Nation

The instinct of self-preservation can mobilize and stimulate heroic performances. This applies equally to nations as to individuals.

Ukrainians are fighting an existential struggle. Every single Russian drone strike, every single rocket in the city center brings destruction. But instead of the depression and defeatism expected by the Russians, these motivate Ukrainians and mobilize the civilian population.

If before the invasion Putin dared to claim that Ukrainians don’t even exist and everyone has always belonged to the „Russian world,“ today he has a consolidated and confident nation before him.

The will of a nation to fight has been one of the main sources of strength of nations and the key to success in all long and great wars so far.

All these are factors that don’t make Ukrainians doomed to defeat by any means. The Russians experienced three strategic surprises right at the beginning. If Putin today relies on lasting longer in this war, he may experience a fourth and final strategic surprise.

Ukrainians can still withstand Russian aggression, but meanwhile, it may happen that we won’t withstand it, here in Slovakia.

Lessons from the War for Us in the West

Regardless of how Russian aggression and Ukraine’s fight for survival eventually end, we must learn from this war. It revealed the fragility of European security assumptions, the urgency of civil defense, and the need for strategic clarity and mobilization.

Slovakia and Europe as a whole – this conflict is not a distant crisis but a mirror reflecting our own vulnerability and choices.

Hundreds of treatises have already been written about this war today, although not all are fully understood and especially accepted by politicians who decide and citizens whom it concerns. Many assumptions will change, as will their final evaluations. But the main trends are clear today.

This war is already fundamentally changing views on warfare and military-political competition, as well as concepts of state survival. The long-term consequences of the Ukrainian conflict are extensive and deeply transformative – regionally and globally. Together they create a whole series of domino effects.

Main Consequences of the War

Let’s mention at least some:

Geopolitical Realignment

◾️Geopolitical realignment is occurring, and a new cold war dynamic is emerging

◾️The war has cemented the gulf between Russia and Western democracies

◾️NATO and the EU are strengthening ties and expanding military capabilities

◾️Russia is increasingly aligning with China and other non-Western powers, potentially reshaping global alliances and trade routes

◾️Countries that were traditionally non-aligned are reassessing their positions and balancing economic interests with security concerns

Security and Military Changes

◾️European countries are increasing defense budgets and weapons production. This applies not only to the Baltic states and Poland but also to Germany or Sweden

◾️NATO has rapidly expanded as a result of the war. Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO represents a significant strategic shift in Northern Europe

◾️The conflict has accelerated the use of artificial intelligence, drones, and cyber tools in modern warfare, creating new precedents for future conflicts

Economic and Energy Disruption

◾️Sanctions, disrupted supply chains, and energy shortages have triggered inflation and economic instability worldwide

◾️Europe is rapidly diversifying away from Russian oil and gas, investing in renewable energy sources and alternative suppliers

◾️Even after the conflict ends, many sanctions against Russia will likely persist, changing global trade and investment flows

Human Rights and Social Consequences

◾️Massive casualties, emigration, and declining birth rates are accelerating Russia’s demographic crisis

◾️Widespread human rights violations, including torture and forced deportations, will leave lasting scars and complicate future reconciliation

◾️With millions of displaced Ukrainians, rebuilding communities and infrastructure will likely take decades

Strategic Uncertainty

◾️Frozen conflicts will continue to haunt the world. Even if active fighting ceases, unresolved territorial disputes and political enmity can persist for years

◾️New arms races are coming, and the importance of deterrence is growing. The war has renewed interest in hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities, and nuclear deterrence strategies

◾️Global governance and cooperation are failing

The war in Ukraine is also bringing a completely new revolution in warfare. Doctrine and tactics are completely changing. The view of the right mix of military capabilities, strategic deterrence, defense, civil defense, and country resilience is fundamentally changing.

Views on the professional army and compulsory service are changing. Concepts of comprehensive mobilization of society await a fundamental revision.

These issues and their impact on Europe and Slovakia will be addressed in the second part of the podcast.

And that’s all for today. I look forward to listening to the second part of the podcast. Thank you for your attention.

The post Ukrainian War for Existence appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#Macron #NATO #Putin #Rusko #Starmer #Trump #Ukrajina #USA #Vojna na Ukrajine #Zelenský

Americký diktát ako inovácia Mníchovského diktátu?

Americkí vyjednávači predstavili údajný Trumpov sedembodový mierový plán na zastavenie bojov na Ukrajine. Americký minister zahraničia Marco Rubio zároveň nedokázal skryť svoju frustráciu. Tesne pred Veľkou nocou naznačil, že pokiaľ bojujúce strany neprijmú Trumpov mier za každú cenu, ktorú majú zaplatiť hlavne Ukrajinci, môžu Američania aj ukončiť svoju sprostredkovateľskú misiu a venovať sa niečomu inému.

Z toho, čo bolo komunikované na verejnosti, je zrejmé, že by išlo o ponižujúcu kapituláciu Ukrajiny. De facto ešte horšiu ako Mníchovský diktát Československu pod taktovkou Hitlera. Pri Mníchovskom diktáte totiž aspoň Neville Chamberlain a Édouard Daladier naivne a zbabelo dúfali, že oklieštením územia Českoslovenka uspokoja agresívneho Hitlera a zabránia vojne. Prezident Putin používa rovnakú rétoriku ako Hitler, iba preloženú z nemčiny do ruštiny a s upravenými geografickými názvami.

Lenže v prípade Ukrajiny ruská agresia už začala a máme tu už dvanásty rok vojnu, z toho štvrtý rok plnohodnotnú vojnu vedenú všetkými prostriedkami. Vojnu takéhoto rozsahu sme tu nevideli osemdesiat rokov od poslednej svetovej vojny.

Ukrajinci odolali ruskému nátlaku. Putin nečakal na vyjednávania, do poslednej chvíle klamal prezidentovi Macronovi a kancelárovi Scholzovi a bez škrupulí zaútočil na Ukrajinu. Ukrajinci sa spontánne bránili, dokonca aj civilisti s Molotovovými koktejlmi. Celému svetu dokázali, že Rusi nemajú na to, aby ich za viac ako tri roky porazili.

Ukrajinci zaplatili za to obrovskú cenu na životoch, zdraví, miliónoch utečencov, obrovských materiálnych a morálnych škodách. A teraz majú podľahnúť nejakému ultimátu, znesvätiť všetky tie obete a bez boja sa podriadiť vonkajšiemu diktátu v rozpore s medzinárodným právom, Chartou OSN a morálkou?

Chamberlain a Daladier mohli podceniť Hitlera a uveriť jeho propagande. Ale Trump v prípade Putina už predsa opakovane videl vierolomnosť jeho sľubov a jeho brutálne agresívne skutky. Ak svoju sebastrednosť a snahu hodiť všetko na svojho predchodcu prezidenta Bidena pretavil do snahy podliezať sa Rusku a ponížiť Ukrajinu, tak následky ponesie Ukrajina, Európa, ale aj Spojené štáty. Prezident Trump sa nebude môcť vyhovárať na to, že nemohol počítať s tým, ako sa Putin zachová.

Po dvoch kolách rokovaní, v Paríži (17.4.) a následne v Londýne (23.4), to vyzeralo, že máme pred sebou ťažkú diplomatickú roztržku. Väčšiu, ako tú medzi Trumpom a Zelenským v oválnej pracovni Bieleho domu. Američania predstavili svoj ultimatívny „konečný“ návrh.

Ukrajinci spolu so svojimi podporovateľmi, najmä Spojeným kráľovstvom a Francúzskom neskôr predložili svoj protinávrh. Podrobnosti sme nepoznali, mali sme len neúplné informácie od vyjednávačov sprostredkované cez médiá. Agentúre Reuters sa nakoniec podarilo získať texty obidvoch návrhov.

V podvečer pohrebu Pápeža Františka sa stretol americký vyjednávač Witkoff s prezidentom Putinom. Na pohrebe pápeža sa stretli prezident Zelenský s prezidentom Trumpom, aj štvorica Trump, Zelenský, Macron a Starmer.

Všetci stručne hovoria, že rozhovory boli pozitívne. Ale detaily zatiaľ nepoznáme. Rozoberme si teda podrobnejšie v čom sa tieto návrhy na dosiahnutie mieru líšia.

Rozdiely medzi americkým a európsko-ukrajinským návrhom

Američania 17. apríla predložili Rusku aj Ukrajine to, čo sami označili za konečný návrh obidvom stranám. Aj keď médiá označovali tento Trumpov návrh ako sedem bodový plán, podľa informácií Reuters sa koncentruje do štyroch okruhov – prímerie, bezpečnostné garancie, dohody o územiach a rozvoj ekonomiky.

Ukrajina mala k tomuto návrhu vážne výhrady a preto Marco Rubio zrušil svoju účasť na rokovaniach v Londýne 23. apríla. Ukrajina a jej spojenci predložili protinávrh. Porovnajme si teda tieto dva návrhy.

Prímerie

Americký návrh predpokladá trvalé zastavenie paľby. Obidve strany by sa okamžite dali do rokovaní o technických detailoch a podmienkach. Preložené do jednoduchého jazyka, USA predpokladajú trvalé zastavenie paľby. Obidve strany majú preto začať rokovania o technických podmienkach pre realizáciu a verifikáciu prímeria. A práve v tomto je riziko. V uplynulých dňoch sme videli, že prímerie bez jasných pravidiel a overovania sa len veľmi ťažko realizuje.

Ukrajina a jej partneri kladú na túto oblasť väčší dôraz. Okamžité a bezpodmienečné prímerie na zemi, vo vzduchu a na mori považuje Ukrajina a jej spojenci za úplne prvý a podmieňujúci krok. Teda najprv má prísť bezpodmienečné prímerie a až potom sa môžu baviť o územiach a ďalších otázkach. Preto navrhujú okamžité rokovania o technických podmienkach za prítomnosti USA a európskych krajín.

Dodržiavanie prímeria by bolo od začiatku monitorované Američanmi s podporou tretích krajín. Toto Rusi doteraz odmietali a potom porušovali všetky dohody. Ukrajina chce transparentnosť. Ukrajina a jej európski spojenci naviac požadujú, aby súčasťou prímeria bolo to, že Rusi bezpodmienečne umožnia návrat všetkých deportovaných osôb a unesených detí. Obidve strany by si vymenili všetkých vojnových zajatcov. Rusko musí prepustiť všetkých civilných väzňov.

Bezpečnostné záruky pre Ukrajinu

Američania navrhujú, že Ukrajina dostane robustné bezpečnostné záruky. Garantujúcimi štátmi bude ad hoc zoskupenie európskych štátov plus ochotné mimoeurópske krajiny. Ukrajina nebude usilovať o vstup do NATO. Ukrajina môže pokračovať v úsilí o členstvo v EÚ.

Ukrajina poučená zlyhaním formálnych deklarácií a garancií ako v prípade Budapeštianskeho memoranda žiada silnejšie, podľa nich skutočné bezpečnostné garancie pred obnovením ruskej agresie. Chcú, aby Ukrajina obdržala robustné bezpečnostné garancie a to aj od USA (dohody podobnej článku 5 NATO), pokiaľ nie je zhoda medzi spojencami na členstve v NATO. Žiadne obmedzenia pre obranné sily Ukrajiny.

Aj ukrajinský návrh predpokladá ad hoc zoskupenie vojenských síl európskych a ochotných mimoeurópskych krajín. Ukrajina navrhuje, aby neboli žiadne obmedzenia prítomnosti, zbraní a operácií pre zahraničné sily na území Ukrajiny. Ohľadom členstva v EÚ nie je rozpor.

Územia

V tejto oblasti sú najzásadnejšie a zatiaľ neodstrániteľné rozpory a nezlučiteľné celkové filozofie prístupu. USA formálne (de jure) uznajú anexiu Krymu. USA de facto uznajú ruskú moc nad Luhanskou oblasťou. USA de facto uznajú ruskú moc nad obsadenými časťami Doneckej, Záporožskej a Chersonskej oblasti. Ukrajine sa vrátia územia v Charkivskej oblasti. Ukrajina znovuzíska kontrolu nad Záporožskou jadrovou elektrárňou cez americkú kontrolu a administráciu, pričom elektrina bude distribuovaná obidvom krajinám. Ukrajina bude mať slobodný prechod rieky Dnipro a kontrolu nad Kinburnskou kosou.

Tento americký návrh vyvolal veľkú vlnu nevôle nielen na Ukrajine, ale rozhodne potešil prezidenta Putina. Takýto návrh je likvidáciou desaťročia platného medzinárodného poriadku a jednostranne odmeňuje agresora a potenciálne môže stimulovať agresie po celom svete s cieľom získavania území.

Podľa ukrajinského návrhu , teritoriálne otázky budú diskutované a plne rozhodnuté až po plnom a bezpodmienečnom prímerí. Teda, najprv má byť dosiahnuté prímerie a až potom sa majú riešiť tieto otázky. Negociácie o územiach začnú na báse aktuálnej línie kontroly (dotyku).

Teda, Ukrajina si je vedomá, že nie je momentálne schopná vytlačiť Rusov z okupovaných území. Ale má záujem o vyriešenie osudov týraných a väznených ľudí, chce návrat unesených detí. Ale hlavne, nemôže formálne uznať trvalú stratu územia. Prezident Zelenský ani parlament na to podľa ústavy ani nemajú právo. Naviac, bol by to návod na ďalšiu agresiu o pár rokov neskôr.

Ekonomika

Podľa Trumpovho návrhu, USA a Ukrajina budú implementovať ekonomickú spoluprácu v oblasti minerálov. Ukrajina má byť plne zrekonštruovaná a finančne kompenzovaná. Sankcie voči Rusku v dôsledku tohto konfliktu od roku 2014 budú odstránené. Bude sa rozvíjať americko-ruská spolupráca v oblasti energetiky a ostatných odvetviach.

Ukrajinský protinávrh nie je v zásadnom rozpore, skôr upresňuje niektoré detaily. V prípade rekonštrukcie a finančných kompenzácií navrhuje, že budú zahŕňaťaj ruské suverénne finančné zdroje, ktoré zostanú zmrazené až kým Rusko kompenzuje škody Ukrajine.

Odlišný je aj pohľad na načasovanie a tempo rušenia amerických sankcií voči Rusku. Tieto majú byť postupne uvoľňované po dosiahnutí udržateľného mieru a môžu byť predmetom znovuobnovenia v prípade, že by došlo k porušeniu mierových dohôd.

Záver: Je celkom isté, že tieto rozdiely bolôi predmetom rozhovoru medzi prezidentmi Zelenským a Trumpom., ako aj v ďalších rozhovoroch. Nakoľko sa ale tieto stanoviská zblížili a či sú vôbec relevantné pre Rusko sa ešte len ukáže.

The post Analýza: Je na dosah trvalý a spravodlivý mier? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#charta OSN #jadrový terorizmus #NATO #Rusko #Ukrajina #USA #Vojna na Ukrajine

Bývalý ruský prezident a podpredseda ruskej bezpečnostnej rady sa vyjadril, že ruská trpezlivosť s Ukrajinou a so západnými krajinami má svoje medze a vyhráža sa jadrovou vojnou. Ukrajina sa vyše dva a pol roka bráni proti plnoformátovej ruskej invázii a západné krajiny jej dodávajú zbrane. Ale do konfliktu sa nezapájajú. Napriek tomu sa podobne vyjadruje aj prezident Putin. Rusko používa jadrový terorizmus a tzv. reflexívnu kontrolu na zastrašovanie a odradenie USA a západných spojencov od dodávok zbraní zúfalo sa brániacej Ukrajine.

Bohužiaľ, je to naopak. Ukrajina sa podľa čl 51 Charty OSN, aj podľa morálky a zdravého rozumu môže a musí brániť pred snahou o úplnú likvidáciu národa a štátnosti v dôsledku imperialistickej ruskej agresie. Podľa medzinárodného práva môže na to použiť všetky dostupné zbrane a prostriedky a útočiť na všetky ciele agresora bez ohľadu na to, kde sa nachádzajú, až do ukončenia ruskej agresie. Ruské vyhrážky voči Západu dodávajúcemu zbrane Ukrajine prichádzajú v čase, keď ruská armáda masívne používa cudzie rakety dodané až po začiatku svojvoľnej ruskej invázie.

Odstrašovanie funguje len keď je uveriteľné

Ak sa Rusku ako jadrovému teroristovi ukáže slabosť a Ukrajina bude bude prinútená kapitulovať, bude hrozba svetového konfliktu takmer neodvratná. Rusko bude aj naďalej bez zodpovednosti stupňovať tlak a dokonca použije silu voči členskej krajine NATO vediac, že nepríde adekvátna odveta. Najväčšou strategickou chybou zo strany USA, Spojeného kráľovstva a celého Západu by bolo nechať Rusko v mylnej predstave, že si môže dovoliť čokoľvek, aj obmedzený jadrový útok voči NATO a ten zostane nepotrestaný.

Práve takýto postup povedie nakoniec k zničujúcej eskalácii zo strany Ruska, lebo ruskí vojnoví štváči a ich kolaboranti rozpútajú kataklizmu, ktorá sa už nebude dať zastaviť. Ukrajina je v práve. My sme boli dosť zdržanliví a snažili sme sa všemožne vyhnúť konfliktu s Ruskom. To musí dostať jasnú odpoveď, že akýkoľvek ruský útok na NATO bude znamenať zničujúcu odvetu. Takto funguje odstrašovanie. Takto fungovalo odstrašovanie počas studenej vojny. Agresor musí dostať jasný signál, že sa budeme brániť všetkými prostriedkami.

The post Nehoráznosť: Agresor a jadrový terorista stráca trpezlivosť s brániacim sa! appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

Fico a jeho koalícia napriek pronárodným rečiam považujú Slovensko za nepriateľskú krajinu, ich mentálnou domovinou je Rusko. Národnú identitu a národné záujmy zamenili za falošný panslavizmus, čo je len nástroj ruského imperializmu, a svoje vlastné mocenské a ekonomické záujmy.

V duchu horeuvedenej stratégie od Majstra Suna, likvidujú všetko, čo je na Slovensku dobré alebo ako tak fungovalo – prírodu, ekonomiku, verejné financie, justíciu, kultúru, armádu, políciu, prokuratúru, spravodajské zložky…

Všetko podriadili svojim úzkym skupinovým a ruským záujmom. Až tento raut skončí, zostane tu po nich len spálená zem a ľudia ochotní prijať akéhokoľvek okupanta. Stačí, aby im sľúbil, že sa o nich postará.

Vo svojom článku v DennikN autori Tomáš Čorej, Mirek Tóda a Lukáš Prchal zisťovali názory u našich spojencov a zahraničných expertov. Z článku si dovolím citovať:

„Západné kontrarozviedky teraz prehodnocujú spoluprácu so slovenskými kolegami, pretože to prestáva mať zmysel, pokiaľ informácie uniknú na druhú stranu,“ vysvetľuje britský novinár Edward Lucas, ktorý sa špecializuje na tajné služby.

NATO prirovnáva k lietadlu s rôznym typom leteniek od prvej až po ekonomickú triedu. „Slovensko riskuje, že úroveň jeho služieb sa zníži na úroveň fľaše vody s balíčkom čipsov,“ konštatuje.

Celý článok DenníkaN si môžete prečítať tu:

Západné krajiny už filtrujú tajné informácie pre Slovensko. Česi Ficovi neverili od začiatku, iných nahneval postupne (dennikn.sk)

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#EÚ #GLOBSEC #NATO #Rusko #Smer -SD #Ukrajina #Vojna na Ukrajine 

Blánár ani Smer nie sú odborníci na zahraničnú politiku. Je načase, aby Smer začal riešiť problémy slovenských občanov a nie imperialistické ambície zločincov z Kremľa! Na rozdiel od Smeru, prezidenti SR a ČR svojou návštevou na Ukrajine riešili tie najdôležitejšie problémy občanov SR a ČR – mier, bezpečnosť a stabilitu.

Blanár kritizuje prezidentku a špekuľuje o tom, čo by občania privítali. Občania Slovenska by určite uvítali, keby sa kolaboranti s ruskými vrahmi a nacistami nepretŕčali v televízii. Je nehoráznosť, čo Blanár beztrestne tára o Ukrajine na Markíze. Vojnoví štváči zo Smeru klamú o mieri a vydávajú Ukrajinu a západ za agresora a súčasne presadzujú záujmy nacistického Ruska. Presne ako doma, kde sa Smer vydáva za obeť vraždy J. Kuciaka. Hnus!

Reči o tom, ako sa Rusko nedá poraziť konvečnými zbraňami sú nezmysel. Rusko predsa napadlo Ukrajinu a tá sa bráni. Tá rovnica je presne opačne. Rusko vojensky nedokáže poraziť Ukrajinu a malo by okamžite ukončiť nezmyselnú agresiu. Ak Ukrajincom nepomôžeme, len predlžujeme vojnu. Ak im nedáme zbrane a pomoc, tak sa budeme spolupodieľať na agresii, ktorá má za cieľ likvidáciu ukrajinského národa a štátu.

Blanár de facto jasne povedal, že ak Vás na ulici prepadnú gangstri a budú Vás kopať, tak on by prišiel a ešte Vás dokopal, aby skrátil Vaše utrpenie. Tento politruk melie dookola o predlžovaní vojny. Nech láskavo ide na ruskú ambasádu a žiada okamžité stiahnutie Rusov z Ukrajiny! Vypínam.

The post Prečo volajú do televízií kolaborantov a geopolitických analfabetov? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#bezpečnosť #demagógia #diskreditácia #F-16 #NATO #Rusko #Ukrajina #Vojna na Ukrajine

Mafiánsky štát a jeho strojcovia ako chameleóni zmenili šat a rétoriku, tvária sa ako tribúni ľudu, obhajcovia právneho štátu a mierotvorcovia. A majú tisíce nasledovateľov, ktorí sa orientujú podľa informácií, ktoré sa k nim dostanú. Tých od strojcov mafiánskeho štátu a proruskej scény je viac ako tých objektívnych. Zlo sa snaží prekričať dobro. Taktika je jednoduchá, stačí pustiť do éteru klamstvo a ono sa už samo uchytí, najmä, ak ho nikto nevyvracia.

Ľudia sú uponáhľaní, nemajú čas si overovať fakty. Žijú z titulkov, z krátkych nepravdivých výrokov, z perfektných marketingových ťahov. Takto funguje manipulácia. Vždy sa niečo z klamstva „uchytí“ a stane sa to akceptovanou pravdou. Sú dva spôsoby ako tomu čeliť a reagovať.

Ten prvý je, že tvrdo a trpezlivo vysvetľujete, chodíte do médií, študujete a overujete si fakty a prezentujete otvorene pravdu, aj keď sa to časti davu nepáči. Trpezlivo znášate posmešky, nadávky, vyhrážky a diskreditáciu. Skrátka pre dobro nesiete kožu na trh.

Druhá možnosť je splynúť s davom. Radšej sa nevyjadrujete, ste tíško ako voš pod chrastou. Máte malú eseročku, robíte kšefty aj s obvinenými „kapitánmi“ mafiánskeho štátu, veď Vy za to nemôžete, čo oni robia. Aj keď ste v živote neriadili viac ako troch ľudí, čakáte na svoju šancu a máte ambície trebárs aj na premiéra. Rozhodnú síce občania, ale máte veľkú šancu. Stačia Vám bilboardy, skvelé heslá a dobrá kampaň a urobia z Vás čistého a odhodlaného nositeľa zmeny. Lenže spoločnosť sa aj naďalej bude prepadať do bahna…

Poďme naspäť k demagógii a klamstvám. Stratégovia, akých som popisal ako druhú možnosť, sú tíško a radia nereagovať. Lenže demagógia nezapadne prachom, ale sa šíri oveľa rýchlejšie a ľahšie ako pravda. Aj preto sme šokovaní z predvolebných prieskumov. Ja skúšam za pravdu bojovať. Nielen preto, že to robil už Štefánik, ale preto, že zlu a lži sa nemá ustupovať. Robím to vecne a kľudne, ale niekedy treba aj ostrejšie, ale slušne.

Tu je ukážka, ako chodia diskreditovať na youtube, lebo vedia, že to pozerajú tisíce ľudí:

♨️Robert Molnár ( @robertmolnar7032 ) otvára konverzáciu:

„Macko je taky odbornik ako ja kozmonaut… F16 su nerealne na ukrajine, jedine ak tam pojdu americania do nich. Minimalny bojovy výcvik je 35 mesiacoch..“

✅Odpovedám ( @pavelmacko1723 ):

„Ste chytrý, ale asi hluchý. Povedal som že výcvik je 15 mesiacov na výcvikových strojoch a potom 2 roky na F-16. Takže je to dokonca 39 mesiacov. Tak proti čomu vlastne protestujete? Proti svojmu obrazu v zrkadle? Ja odborník som, ale Vy kozmonautom nebudete ani vo vlhkom sne. „

♨️♨️ Pridáva sa Ľubomír Molnár ( @lubomirmolnar6644 )

„@pavelmacko1723 … Ale pozerám okrem iných aj vaše komentáre. A aj keď nemienim spochybnovať vaše vojenské schopnosti, tak musím konštatovať že ste mnoho krát komentoval dianie na UA ako demagóg. Stačí si pozrieť vaše staršie príspevky.“

✅ Odpovedám:

“ @lubomirmolnar6644 Takže verejná výzva pre Vás pán Molnár: Váš menovec tu má problémy so sluchom a spochybňuje moje vyjadrenie na základe svojho nepodloženého dojmu, lebo v tom videu som presne povedal v akých fázach a ako dlho trvá výcvik. Ale Róbert Molnár si melie svoje a od veci.

Výhodou je, že moje vyjadrenia sa dajú presne prehrať a porovnať s Vašimi klamnými alebo chybnými interpretáciami. Celé mesiace sem ako trollovia chodíte, koordinujete sa v konkrétnych skupinách, ale ANI RAZ ste nepriniesli dôkaz, len republikánske táraniny. Presne tak to tu bude, keď mafia a fašisti vyhrajú voľby. Takže sem dajte moje konkrétne výroky a nie Vaše domnienky a porovnáme si zvukovo-obrazové záznamy, čo rozprávate o mne Vy a čo som skutočne povedal ja.

Na rozdiel od väčšiny analytikov vo svete aj na Slovensku, ja som práve jeden z tých opatrnejších a skeptickejších a nerobil som propagandu, ani som nešíril zbožné želania namiesto faktov, ako to robia notorickí rusofili. A potom môžeme porovnať s vyjadreniami ľudí z Republiky, smerohlasu, či Hlavných správ. A uvidíme, kto tu rok klame a robí demagógiu. Najprv tvrdili, že Rusko nezaútočí, potom sa tešili že za týždeň Ukrajina padne a teraz zúfalo chodia po internete a klamú, kto čo tvrdil. Všetky videá, statusy, články a vyjadrenia sa dajú dohľadať a pekne analyzovať. Takže dajte niečo, alebo prestaňte ohovárať.

♨️♨️ Ľubomír Molnár kontruje:

“ @pavelmacko1723 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg-D-DDVsuE&t=262s cca 30 minúta. Môžeme sa hrať zo slovíčkami. Ale ak niekto povie že rusi už tento konflikt nemôžu vyhrať ( čo dúfam že nevyhrajú ) neznamená to že prehral, alebo teda prehrá ? A našli by sa ešte podobné výroky, ale nemám čas ani záujem presedieť dva dni pri PC aby som znova počúval všetky vaše príspevky.“

✅ Reagujem:

“ @lubomirmolnar6644 Práve ste sa zosmiešnili. Zahrniem Vašu otázku aj ukážku do budúceho videa, nech aj Vaše okolie vie, ako tárate. Otázka na Vašej úrovni chápania: UŽ RUSI VYHRALI A OBSADILI UKRAJINU? NIE? Tak až to bude pravda, potom príďte! Ale zatiaľ stále platí, čo som povedal ja a Vy ste strelili capa.

Na svojom vyjadrení trvám: „Nie je možné, aby Rusi vyhrali tento konflikt. “ Môžu Ukrajinu vojensky obsadiť, môžu vyvraždiť všetkých Ukrajincov, ale nie je možné si silou natrvalo podrobiť 40 miliónový národ, ktorý sa bráni a nechce s ruským svetom už nič mať.

👉„Pravde veriť, pravdu žiť a pravdu brániť.“ 👈
M.R. Štefánik

The post Macko vs Molnárovci: Vecné argumenty vs demagógia appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

30.12.2021

#Bydén #EÚ #NATO #obrana #obranná spolupráca #povinná služba #Rusko #Švédsko #USA

Švédsko nie je členským štátom NATO, hoci s NATO úzko spolupracuje a intenzívne sa podieľalo aj na misiách NATO v Afganistane. Ako člen EÚ sa Švédsko výrazne angažuje vo vojenských štruktúrach aktivitách Európskej únie vrátane bojových skupín EÚ (EU Battlegroups). V súvislosti so zhoršujúcou sa medzinárodnou situáciou Švédsko v roku 2018 znovu zaviedlo povinnú vojenskú službu s cieľom posilniť obranné kapacity a tvorbu záloh pre prípadnú mobilizáciu. Povinná vojenská služba platí pre mužov aj ženy podobne ako v Nórsku.

Z rozhovoru sa okrem iného dozviete:

V dôsledku meniacej sa situácie v Európe a aktivít Ruska v oblasti Baltického mora, Švédsko výrazne posilňuje svoju obranyschopnosť. Obranné výdavky narastú o 40 %. Zavedenie už spomínanej povinnej vojenskej služby umožnilo rozšíriť švédske ozbrojené sily o 5 plukov pozemného vojska a jedno letecké krídlo. Tým narástli tzv. vojnové tabuľky počtov na 55 tisíc vojakov. Do roku 2025 to má byť 80 tisíc a v roku 2030 okolo 100 tisíc vojakov. Momentálne odvádzajú každý rok 5 500 mužov a žien a tento počet by mal narásť na 8 500 odvedencov za rok.

Švédsko výrazne modernizuje aj svoju techniku, Protivzdušná obrana je posilnená o systémy Patriot, investujú do letectva, ponorkového loďstva, ale aj do kybernetických spôsobilostí. Keďže Švédsko nie je členom NATO, súčasťou zaisťovania obrany je rozširovanie bilaterálnej a regionálnej spolupráce. Tá výrazne narástla s Fínskom a ďalšími krajinami. Narastá aj spolupráca s USA. Rozhovor vznikol pri príležitosti návštevy generála Bydéna u predsedu Zboru náčelníkov štábov vo Washingtone. Švédi sa zúčastnili s Francúzmi a Spojeným kráľovstvom na misii v Mali, švédske sily sú integrované v Spoločných expedičných silách vedených Spojeným kráľovstvom.

Celý rozhovor si môžete prečítať tu:
https://www.defensenews.com/interviews/2021/12/27/swedens-top-general-on-watching-russia-and-responding-to-an-invasion-of-ukraine/

Pozn.: Generála Bydéna som mal možnosť osobne stretnúť a sprevádzať ho pri jeho návšteve výcviku veliteľstva RC North ISAF vo výcvikovom centre JFTC Bydgoszcz, ktorému som velil v rokoch 2011-2013. Švédsko sa aktívne podieľalo na operáciách RC North a v rámci veliteľstva malo pozíciu zástupcu veliteľa.

The post Švédsko razantne posilňuje svoju obranu appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

Misia v Afganistane (ISAF, neskôr Resolute Support) bola najväčšou operáciou NATO v dejinách organizácie. Jej zlyhanie je naša spoločná zodpovednosť. Pre ďalšie fungovanie aliancie je nutné spoločne vyhodnotiť naše pôsobenie.

Slovensko by malo podporiť alebo iniciovať vytvorenie spoločnej komisie NATO. Tá by mala komplexne posúdiť pôsobenie v Afganistane vrátane politických otázok a rozhodovacieho procesu. Podobne by sme mali posúdiť z vojenského a politického hľadiska pôsobenie v Afganistane aj u nás doma.

Tím expertov ešte pod mojím vedením vyhodnotil pôsobenie OS SR v misii ISAF. Potrebujeme komplexné posúdenie pôsobenia v Afganistane aj na celonárodnej úrovni.

Zdroj:

https://www.trtworld.com/americas/us-launches-commission-to-study-afghanistan-fiasco-52676

The post Misiu v Afganistane treba riadne vyhodnotiť! appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

Blogy

O tom, ako Žilinkova prokuratúra v skutočnosti ctí zákonnosť:

https://blog.sme.sk/pavelmacko/spolocnost/v-mafianskom-state-sa-prokuratura-riadi-omertou

Základné otázky k nahrávkam z chaty:

https://blog.sme.sk/pavelmacko/spolocnost/sedem-otazok-a-odpovedi-k-chatagate

O tom, ako Žilinka opät pôsobil ako Agent 363:

https://pavelmacko.sk/2021/10/25/svedectvo-vraj-nie-je-dokaz/

O tom, že koalícia už stratila energiu a súdržnosť na to, aby urobila nejaké skutočné reformy. A tak bude udržiavať v podstate Ficove dedičstvo:

https://pavelmacko.sk/2021/10/25/komentar-koalicia-uz-ziadnu-reformu-nezrealizuje/

Podcasty

O raste cien energií a čo je za tým:

https://pavelmacko.sk/podcasts/co-sa-deje-s-cenami-energii/

O rozpočte na obranu na rok 2022:

https://pavelmacko.sk/podcasts/komentare-25-10-2021-obranny-rozpocet/

O vysokej hre okolo nahrávok a Facebook Papers:

https://pavelmacko.sk/podcasts/komentare-26-10-2021-chatagate-je-vysoka-hra/

O rozdielnom prístupe k disciplíne a poriadku v ozbrojených zložkách štátu:

https://pavelmacko.sk/podcasts/disciplina-v-ozbrojenych-zlozkach-statu/

Príspevky na facebooku

O vzniku Československa a jeho význame pre náš národ:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4831539180200172

Odkaz generálnemu prokurátorovi Žilinkovi v súvislosti s jeho selektívnym prístupom k zákonnosti:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4829690297051727

Otvorený list generálnemu prokurátorovi Žilinkovi o jeho prístupe k nezákonnému postupu OČTK:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4825575827463174

Prvotná reakcia na zverejnené nahrávky z chaty:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4825123510841739

O nácvikoch výpovedí medzi advokátmi obvinených a svedkom Kaliňákom:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4824479250906165

Pravda o Ficových jasnovideckých schopnostiach a charaktere:

https://www.facebook.com/pavel.macko/posts/4822432354444188

The post Týždeň očami generála 25.10.-29.10.2021 appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#Beňo #bezpečnosť #NATO #previerky #SIS #Spojené kráľovstvo #Zurian

Pred časom sa pri Kente objavili na autobusovej zastávke utajované dokumenty britského ministerstva obrany. Médiá zaujali predovšetkým utajované informácie týkajúce aktivít v Čiernom mori a Afganistane. Teraz sa ukázalo, že dokumenty stratil babrák, civilný zamestnanec Angus Lapsley, ktorý kandidoval na miesto britského veľvyslanca pri NATO.

Napriek všetkým predpisom o manipulácii s utajovanými skutočnoťami si ich zobral do tašky a manipuloval s nimi tak nedbanlivo, že ich stratil na zastávke. Ku cti mu slúži to, že sa sám prihlásil, ale ono by sa na to zrejme aj tak prišlo. Momentálne mu suspendovali bezpečnostnú previerku a vyšetrovanie pokračuje.

Bohužiaľ, aj takýto incident relativizuje neuveriteľnú historku z nášho domáceho prostredia. Podľa publikovaných informácii sa bývalý riaditeľ NAKA Zurian a bývalý námestník SIS Beňo schádzali v kaviarni či krčme a ako „styční dôstojíci“ si na verejnosti vymieňali utajované informácie. Aspoň tak nejako znie ťažko uveriteľná legenda. Tá bola zrejme vymyslená v snahe vyhnúť sa možnému právnemu postihu za ohrozenie utajovanej a vyhradenej slutočnosti a zbaviť sa podozrenia zo zneužitia právomocí a informácií na varovanie zločincov.

Zdroj foto: The Guardian /facebook/

Použitý zdroj:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/03/civil-servant-who-lost-mod-files-at-a-bus-stop-was-to-be-uks-ambassador-to-nato

The post Utajované dokumenty stratil kandidát na veľvyslanca pri NATO appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.

#Afganistan #Čína #NATO #Taliban #terorizmus

Viac o udalosti napríklad tu:
Death toll nears 70 in bombing at Kabul school (msn.com)

Vláda afganskej islamskej republiky z útoku viní Taliban. Ten to zatiaľ popiera. Už viac krát sa stalo, že neskôr priznall účasť na útokoch. Prvá bomba vybuchla pri škole, ďalšie boli namierené na utekajúcich žiakov a zásahové jednotky. Šííti tvoria v prevažne islamskom Afganistane menšinu, väčšina populácie je sunitského vyznania.

Táto udalosť je v ostrom kontraste s vyhláseniami nášho mistra obrany Naďa, predstaviteľmi NATO a USA, že situácia v Afganistane je stabilizovaná a preto medzinárodné vojská odchádzajú. V skutočnosti odchádzajú z iných dôvodov a je to asi správne.

Čína kritizuje, ale nič nerobí pre bezpečnosť

Zaujímavý je postoj Číny, ktorá doteraz nijako neprispievala k bezpečnosti v Afganistane. Ťažila len ekonomické výhody na úkor intervenujúceho Západu. Pritom Afganistan je ich takpovediac zadný dvor. Čínsky veľvyslanec v Kábule v súvislosti s výbuchmi ostro kritizoval USA kvôli sťahovaniu amerických vojsk.

Veľvyslanec Yang napísal: „Čína vyzýva zahraničné jednotky v Afganistane, aby plne zohľadnili bezpečnosť ľudí v krajine a regióne, aby sa sťahovali zodpovedným spôsobom a nespôsobovali ešte väčšiu nestabilitu a utrpenie afgánskeho ľudu.“

Zvláštne. Ak má Čína takú starosť o bezpečnosť Afgancov a celého regiónu, mohla by po 20-tich rokoch vystriedať jednotky vedené NATO. Je to len ironická zhoda okolností, že čínske 107 mm rakety boli jednou z účinných zbraní povstalcov proti medzinárodným jednotkám v dobe, keď Čína skupovala of Afgancov ťažobné práva na nerastné bohatstvo. Možno je čas, aby si ich Číňania chránili sami a pomohli s bezpečnosťou aj afganskej vláde namiesto kritiky odsunu medzinárodných vojsk.

Na výsledky afganskej intervencie mám trocha iný pohľad než naši oficiálni predstavitelia. Aký, to sa dozviete z 35-minútového rozhovoru pre ISD (Institute for Security and Defense).

The post Afganistan: Naznačujú výbuchy v Kábule budúci vývoj? appeared first on Pavel Macko - Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie.