How to get out of this? #Bahrajn#Iran#Israel#Kuwait#NATO#OMan#Quatar#Saudi Arabia#Strait of Hormus#UAE#USA
1⃣ Theory states that you go to war only when you have:
▪️a reason that cannot be resolved otherwise
▪️clear objective, strategy and realistic plan
▪️forces and resources in place for their implementation
▪️and a realistic chance that at the end of the war you will have better peace than before its beginning.
2⃣ In addition to the absence of international legal legitimacy, none of the above conditions were met, and yet an order was issued to begin operations without a comprehensive plan, let alone any alternative (branch) plan.
3⃣ Even worse is when you have as defense minister a reservist who, although he served on two short missions, does not understand the state’s security and strategic issues. If he simultaneously has despotic tendencies, and believes that war has no laws and rules, you have guaranteed unsolvable problems.
4⃣ Alliances are not built by humiliating partners, behaving arrogantly, not counting on them in your plans, making decisions without them, and when everything goes wrong, attacking them.
5⃣ Sun Tzu already said: „When you surround an army, leave it a way to escape. Do not press too hard on a desperate enemy.“ The Iranian regime is fighting for survival and has chosen such a strategy. Its leaders and IRGC commanders know very well that if they fall, bloody revenge may come for years of terror against their own population. They also know they have allies in the world who could help them when the time comes.
6⃣ No reasonable person can have interest in a long-term extensive conflict with an open end, nor in internal collapse and long-term civil war in a 90-million country sitting literally on a global nerve center.
7⃣ Israeli and American strategic interests coincide only partially. Israel benefits from degradation of Iran’s ability and its proxy groups to threaten its existence and security. The USA benefits from long-term stability in the region and preventing an uncontrollable and confrontational hegemon from emerging there.
▶️ Without some loss of Trump’s and USA’s credibility, this probably won’t work. It’s better to admit the mistake and record small gains immediately than to hope for total victory without a plan. Usually, instead of that, big losses come. The USA should sit down with their regional partners and NATO allies, succeed, say sorry and try to convince Iran that enough is enough. There’s time for bad solutions, including major escalation, only when everything else fails.
****
Suplementary explanation to my point 3
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has made several controversial statements regarding military operations in the Caribbean and during the conflict with Iran (codenamed Operation Epic Fury). His rhetoric often prioritizes „lethality“ and „warrior ethos“ over traditional diplomatic or humanitarian constraints.
Operations in the Caribbean (Operation Southern Spear)
Controversy in the Caribbean centers on aggressive tactics against suspected drug trafficking vessels, which critics allege have led to potential war crimes.
„Kill Everybody“ Allegation: Hegseth allegedly issued a verbal order to special operations forces in September 2025 to „kill everybody“ aboard a suspected smuggling boat.
Controversy: A second strike reportedly killed two survivors clinging to wreckage, leading to accusations that Hegseth ordered the execution of people who were hors de combat (out of the fight), a violation of international law.
Hegseth’s Response: He labeled these reports „fake news“ and „fabricated,“ insisting all strikes were „lawful“ and targeted „narco-terrorists“.
„Sink You“ Policy: Hegseth publicly stated that anyone working for designated terrorist organizations bringing drugs by boat would be „found and sunk“.
Internal Pushback: He called a video by Democratic veteran lawmakers—reminding troops of their duty to refuse illegal orders—“treasonous“ and attempted to demote Senator Mark Kelly for his involvement.
Conflict with Iran (Operation Epic Fury)
During the 2026 conflict with Iran, Hegseth has used aggressive and religious language that critics say disregards the laws of war.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remarks in Puerto Rico come …
9 Sept 2025 — It’s all about the OIL. … Pieter Germishuys 
makes you feel like a big strong respected manly man right? … Oh, go to Fox New…
Lawmakers warn Hegseth may have committed war crimes …
30 Nov 2025 — POLITICO has not independently verified the Post’s reporting. Sens. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) — both of whom …
Pete Hegseth brings combative style as face of Trump’s war in Iran
11 Mar 2026 — He speaks of how Operation Epic Fury is „crushing the enemy“, whom he labels „terrorist cowards“. „We have only just begun to hunt…
„No Quarter, No Mercy“: In mid-March 2026, Hegseth declared there would be „no quarter, no mercy for our enemies“ in Iran.
Controversy: Under the Geneva Conventions, declaring „no quarter“—refusing to spare those who surrender—is explicitly prohibited.
„Stupid Rules of Engagement“: He has repeatedly criticized established rules of engagement as „stupid“ and „politically correct,“ arguing they „handcuff“ American soldiers.
Religious Rhetoric: Hegseth has framed the war in a religious context, stating that the „providence of our almighty God“ is protecting U.S. troops and that the mission is „righteous“.
Civilian Casualties & Media: Hegseth drew sharp criticism for appearing to minimize U.S. casualties and for „bulldozing“ questions regarding civilian deaths, such as a strike on an Iranian primary school that reportedly killed over 100 children. He accused the press of only reporting casualties to „make the president look bad“.
„Punching Them While They’re Down“: He described strikes against Iranian leaders as „punching them while they’re down,“ adding that it is „exactly how it should be“.
NASPAŤ