General Pavel Macko’s Security Radar 127 #France#Macko#Peace negotiations#Putin#Russia#security guarantees#security radar#Trump#UK#Ukraine#USA#War in Ukraine#Zelensky
127th Edition: Cooled Hopes for Peace After the Trump-Putin Summit
The possible warming of relations and ending of the war from the Trump-Putin summit in cold Alaska quickly cooled down. Allies are discussing security guarantees, which however will not be according to NATO’s Article 5. Hamas would now agree to a temporary ceasefire, but Israel already has a military operation plan.
#France #Macko #Peace negotiations #Putin #Russia #security guarantees #security radar #Trump #UK #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Zelensky
Transcript of a popular podcast prepader together with the weekly .týždeň.
Moderator: Welcome to listening to the 127th edition of General Pavel Macko’s Security Radar. Welcome, General.
General Macko: Thank you very much, pleasant listening.
Fog of War: Developments in Ukraine
Moderator: What is the development on the two main battlefields? Let’s start with Ukraine.
General Macko: I’ll start traditionally, let’s go to the strategic bombing. Despite intensive negotiations taking place at all possible levels and diplomatic messages, the clearest message of how the Russians mean it was precisely by sending missiles and drones to Ukraine. This makes it clear to everyone what they are after – to drag out time.
The most massive attack was on the night of August 20, where they hit Lviv, Mukachevo, Lutsk, attacking mainly western Ukraine. In Mukachevo, just a few kilometers from the Slovak and Hungarian borders, they attacked an American factory. This is also an answer to those who say that when the United States will mine minerals there, it will be a sufficient security guarantee. This resonated sometime after February, but it’s not like that.
They also attacked the Pavlohrad Mechanical Plant. The Russians still declare that they destroyed stocks of Sapsan missiles. I don’t know that, Ukraine of course doesn’t confirm it anywhere.
Similar to how Ukrainians recently showed the Flamingo missile… In this case, it’s better to stick to the principle „don’t shout hop until you’ve jumped“. Why? It’s clear that Zelensky needs to say such things to boost the morale of his own population and soldiers. But here it’s better to maintain operational security. Russian intelligence services have indications, but they never have precise information, we shouldn’t give it to them.
It’s not good to hint at what I have and what I can do with it. If the Ukrainians wanted to create a real psychological shock, they should have fired that Flamingo at a proper Russian base. It is said that they have already done so, but probably not yet.
The point is that the first moment of surprise is key. Flamingo is a large missile with a large radar signature. It’s a subsonic missile that flies like a cruise missile. This means it will be detectable by Russian systems. The Ukrainians should have done exactly what the Russians do – release a large swarm of drones, confuse Russian systems, and in between send them one proper hit.
We’ll see if the Ukrainians will use those Sapsan or Grim-2 ballistic missiles. Russian claims about their destruction are probably a hoax, just like claims that they destroyed twice as many HIMARS as were ever delivered to Ukraine. And despite that, HIMARS are still firing.
Ukrainian Counterattacks
When we look at the Ukrainian side, of course Ukraine also tried to return these attacks and was relatively successful. They had a massive drone attack from the night of August 19 to 20. The Russians claimed they didn’t cause damage, but independent sources report infrastructure damage in several places.
The Volgograd oil refinery and the railway station in Voronezh were attacked again. Something exploded in the Ivanovo region. Ukrainian intelligence claims that Konstantin Nagayko, the Russian commander responsible for the attack on Kharkiv, was injured in an explosion. It was probably an action by Ukrainian intelligence services.
Summary of the Situation
To summarize, my comment would be that the Russians are dragging out peace negotiations (they claim they no longer want a ceasefire, only peace) and currently, from a strategic bombing perspective, they are concentrating on Ukraine’s industrial base. They are trying to undermine it to the maximum extent possible and intersperse it with attacks on the civilian population. Of course, as winter approaches, they will again concentrate on energy infrastructure to take away their breath.
Developments on the Battlefields
Moderator: How are the Ukrainians doing? Did they manage to stop the breakthrough at Dobropillya?
General Macko: It looks like yes. That initial hit was very successful. This means that Ukrainian forces brought in reinforcements, divided the Russian formation into several parts, but couldn’t completely finish it off. The Russians are of course reinforcing it, but the Ukrainians…
We don’t have a visual aid, of course, we’re in the radio version, but imagine something like an oval with an arm coming out of it – like when you inflate a glove and a thumb sticks out. That was the protrusion at Dobropillya. The Ukrainians blocked it, divided it into several parts, but now they are trying to further attack the base from which that protrusion came, to release the „steam“ from this area.
The Ukrainians are relatively successful at this. It is true that the Russians have the 8th Combined Arms Army there, they have the 51st Combined Arms Army, they attacked there with elements of at least three brigades. Of course, the forces are thin on both sides. If we’re talking about a brigade, it’s certainly not 3,500-7,000 soldiers, because Ukrainians had even larger brigades than the Russians. But the Russians are pushing reinforcements there because they know exactly that if they lose momentum there, they won’t be able to threaten the rest of Donbas.
So now it has stabilized a bit, but it’s basically a success for the Ukrainians – they contained it, pushed back. They also had a small success around Pokrovsk, where for the first time they cleared the interior of Pokrovsk from sabotage reconnaissance groups and slightly its surroundings as well.
On the other hand, the Russians slightly advanced in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk. Not that they would control those cities, but they got a bit further beyond them. They slightly advanced by one settlement in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but from the Russians‘ perspective, this is probably propaganda, suggesting that they could attack in that direction as well.
The last thing I would like to mention – there are signals emerging that the Russians could shift pressure, since they’re not succeeding directly in Donbas, more to the Zaporizhzhia region, to the southern front.
Addition to Dobropillya
General Macko: I have just one note about that. I caught quite a good analysis from the Czech profile Perun. They are guys who have been working with drones for a longer time. They talked about why the breakthrough at Dobropillya happened – the Ukrainians thinned out the defensive lines there. We discussed this a few episodes back, we said that instead of a continuous line, they created „strongholds“ or support points with drone operators.
But of course, the other side also reacts. The Russians have a unit and system called Rubikon, which we also discussed. They use Rubikon in such a way that they don’t attack directly just the first line, but mainly the supply routes, convoys, and destroy the troops‘ supplies. This proved successful for them in the Kursk region, and that’s why the Ukrainians eventually withdrew. They had good terrain there, but it also had a disadvantage – it was channelized, they had only a few valleys and roads through which supplies could be delivered.
Now it’s interesting that NATO has also started building a drone wall or drone barrier in the Baltics. The wall alone is not enough. It needs to be said that you always need a combination of means. In the end, war is always about will, and there must also be a soldier with will.
Moderator: When you mention drones, everyone imagines only those that fly, but now I notice that Ukrainians use many ground drones. Is that real?
General Macko: It is real. I’ll also do a bit of advertising for the weekly, because I started writing a series about drones. This issue contains the history of drones, which might surprise many – drones go back to the First World War. So it’s nothing new.
I recommend getting the latest issue of the weekly. But to return to the question – yes, Ukrainians are significantly progressing with ground drones. They were successful with naval ones, they cleared the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea, and now they are more significantly deploying ground drones.
My conclusion from this is that it’s important. The battlefield is becoming more technological, nobody can stop that, but in the end, every war is a battle of wills. Where there is will, those defend themselves. When we don’t have will, no technology will help us.
Middle East
Moderator: Let’s move to the Middle East. How is the situation developing there? Hamas allegedly already agrees with a 60-day ceasefire. I’ll allow myself an assessment – it’s certainly the result of Israeli pressure that they agree.
General Macko: Definitely, because Israel announced that it’s no longer going to negotiate. They approved the decision to go and occupy the rest of Gaza. We discussed those goals and stages in detail last time. Last week, Israel started planning a detailed military plan. They had a strategic plan, which we discussed, and the detailed military plan, which I hinted at last time, Israel has now announced that they have completed it.
The Americans pressed Hamas or the Palestinians to engage in negotiations. Hamas announced that it is ready to negotiate. Because they said they are ready for another 60-day ceasefire.
Netanyahu, of course, said: „You know what, we’ve already decided and we’re going to strike you, we have a military plan.“ Netanyahu has now suspended those operations, but again, it’s more of a negotiating strategy, a communication strategy, because militarily he already has things prepared. After all, we all know that those measures were set up so that only preparatory military activities are to take place now. The main task is only from October 7, because they said they would start at the earliest on October 7, and they would also symbolically start the sharp combat phase on the anniversary of Hamas‘ attack from October 7, 2023.
So now these are the so-called „shaping operations“ or „forming operations“, where they are building conditions… On August 8, they already issued an evacuation order for people to leave Jabalia and Gaza City. Now logistical infrastructure is being built in the south. So regardless of what Netanyahu said, the main combat operations would not have started anyway. But he created space and pressure on Hamas by that: „You know what, this is the last chance, we’ll suspend it, and this is the last chance for you to come to an agreement. We won’t go and kill all of you, but you won’t be in power anymore, you must leave the Gaza Strip, there will be some other authority instead of you, and you must demilitarize.“
And they don’t want that. They don’t want it because again the trick with the two-month ceasefire is: „Okay, so out of those 50 hostages, we might return 30 dead ones and 10 live ones, and we’ll keep those 10 again and we’ll drag out time again.“
Despite all the criticism of Israel at this moment, it’s good that Israel is pretending to be more restrained and wants to wait and see what Hamas actually agrees to. And if it doesn’t meet its parameters, it will pressure them: „Okay, I’ll pull out not from the drawer, but from those topographic pouches, the battle plans, and we’ll go and finish it.“ Or we’ll agree in such a way that we won’t have to negotiate on another ceasefire, that this will already be a permanent ceasefire.
We’ll see how it develops, but in the meantime, during that week, exactly what happened was that they completed that military plan. Operational and tactical planning has some time sequence. I’ve been dealing with this for years, also at allied levels. Those large contours of the plan were clear, different alternatives, so-called „branch plans“ – branching of plans, what will be if… – to calculate all possible reactions. And Israel has now completed this.
Meanwhile, some security operations continued. There was bombing again in southern Lebanon. Here I just remind that Lebanon is disarming Hezbollah. The Lebanese government has issued clear instructions to disarm Hezbollah.
Netanyahu appears a bit controversial, with his tough talk and speaking about Greater Israel. That’s fine to some extent, but what disturbs me, and maybe it’s counterproductive, is the further expansion of settlements in the West Bank, because it will provoke further reactions that divert attention from the core of the problem, which is now in Gaza.
Moderator: I would like to ask about those settlements, because to laypeople like me, it sounds like: „Well, they’ll build a few houses there, so what? What could bother anyone about that?“ What is the principle issue with building those settlements?
General Macko: The principle is that the West Bank, according to the original UN resolutions when the state of Israel was created, was assigned to the Arabs. After the Arabs expelled… we were saying here that Israel, when it was established, had about 750,000 inhabitants. And the Arabs in that first Arab-Israeli war, when Czechoslovakia was still supplying weapons and aircraft to Israel for it to survive at all, in response to their being unsuccessful in that war and not destroying the state of Israel, expelled 850,000 Jews from their countries where Jews had lived for centuries. That’s more than the population of Israel itself.
So the Israelis placed them on their territory, but it was dense there and there isn’t water everywhere. In the desert, it’s not easy. So these Israelis, for at least 20 years, or Jews, were in refugee camps. Many established settlements, they said: „Okay, when you expelled them from your countries and we no longer have space in what was allocated to us,“ so they established settlements and settled those Jews also in territories originally assigned to Arabs and built some settlements there.
Now it’s controversial because if some two-state solution is to be made in the future, then Israeli settlers, when there is suitable land, want to go there and they go into the risk that they will be in that hot cauldron with a population that doesn’t want them there, and they still build settlements there.
It’s exactly like when the Russians bring their own people everywhere… That’s why it’s controversial, because it disrupts the compactness of the territory, and the Arabs fear that in the future, when there is some arrangement, Israel will also claim that part of the territory because it already has settlements there.
Strategic Backstage: Trump-Putin Negotiations
Moderator: Since the last radar, the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska took place, followed by Zelensky’s negotiations with Western leaders in Washington. It even looked like a trilateral Putin-Trump-Zelensky meeting could take place this week. But I didn’t believe it at all. But it’s starting to get complicated again. How do you personally evaluate that development? You certainly see it through slightly different eyes than we laypeople.
General Macko: What we more or less agreed on with Martin Swarovsky, when we were last at your place in a joint video before the negotiations, is being fulfilled – that we don’t have great expectations from these negotiations.
Why? Because I also have to look at the symptoms that accompany it. If you give an ultimatum to someone like Putin, and then you yourself send your emissaries, that was Witkoff, who went to Moscow two days before the ultimatum expired, and that meeting in Alaska was arranged, which is fine…
I also supported it, because the United States, unlike our Minister of Foreign Affairs or Prime Minister, have that displacement and are the player that can contribute to ending the conflict. They have all the tools for which the Russians would have to think whether they want to go into confrontation with the United States, or they realize that they cannot win that war anyway, so it’s better to end it.
The problem is that when you send negotiators and then the ultimatum expires and despite that, the Russians don’t agree to a ceasefire, you’re sending a signal that you don’t have the will to continue and bring things to an end. It could have been done like this: „Okay, we’ll negotiate in Alaska, but a ceasefire must occur by August 8, and when it doesn’t… then we won’t negotiate.“ Or: „We’ll negotiate, but when a ceasefire doesn’t happen, I’ll impose sanctions in the meantime, and when we agree in the negotiations, I can suspend or cancel them, but since I’ve given an ultimatum once, I must keep it.“
Otherwise, we teach the opponent that we are not so determined, we are not so decided, and therefore they will drag out time with us. And that’s exactly what happened.
I laconically noted on social network X that the problem today is that the Russians have nothing, but they have a lot of vodka and will. And we have almost everything, but we don’t have that will. And therefore, in the end, not our economic strength, not the military strength of the collective West, not Ukrainian determination, but Russian will to continue in that war will prevail, and the Russians will drag out time.
So very briefly: In Alaska, there were indications that the negotiations could lead to a result, but neither side said the complete details. The good news was that Trump, after Merz and company intensively negotiated with him before, and Zelensky too, doesn’t dare to accept something right away, but he didn’t want to appear as the bad one who would a priori accept Russian demands. That’s why he adjourned it and said that we’re almost close to an agreement, but… this is a quote: „Until everything is agreed, nothing is agreed.“ That’s what President Trump said at that press conference, where he gave the first word to Putin.
Then he said he would consult with allies. He consulted with allies, the allies even with Zelensky traveled to the White House. Those negotiations were constructive, but with two major strategic conclusions:
1) The first was that the US will not provide troops for potential security guarantees. What is leaking, although no one will confirm it to you, is that more or less internally, the United States is reconciled with the fact that Ukraine will have to cede territory – but not just any territory for any territory, but Donbas, that it will have to cede. And that is the „Fortress Donbass“ or „Donbass fortress“, which has been fought over not for 3.5 years, but for 11 years.
I’ll remind you that when that Russian war started, the Russians occupied, with those so-called rebels, who were actually members of the Russian intelligence service, or Wagner Group members, or „soldiers on vacation“ (Russian soldiers on vacation), also Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces conquered it and pushed them out, and that’s when they built that strong defense in Donbas. And that was also Lysychansk, that was also Severodonetsk, which later fell. Then Bakhmut also fell, but they still have that rampart, fortification, and those economically important cities.
So the Ukrainians cannot surrender this, because firstly, the Russians were not able to conquer it militarily. Maybe they will gain it in 10 years, but until then, if the West did exactly what it should, Russia would collapse and economically would have to accept other conditions.
So it was said that the United States does not support Ukraine in NATO. Well, strategically, they probably agreed with Putin: „We won’t provoke you, you need guarantees.“ Putin himself said in Alaska that Ukraine also needs guarantees. So it was agreed that they would agree. And that’s always such… I say that what happens behind the scenes is important.
Western allies, since they knew that the United States would not go into direct confrontation, that they don’t have too much will to push for sanctions, and that at the same time Trump is impatient and wants to have it over with as quickly as possible, so they said they would give security guarantees. And those were then negotiated during the week.
So if it won’t be Article 5, we all knew that Ukraine cannot be admitted to NATO now during the war, but until the last moment, not only Jens Stoltenberg, but also the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, assured that it’s only a matter of time before Ukraine will be in NATO. And now we’re deviating and saying that we’ll give it other security guarantees.
I don’t want to say I don’t believe them, but it’s important for Putin to believe it. Because if something is to deter you, you must be convinced that the other side will do it. I’ll translate it for laypeople: If we say that we’ll give security guarantees such that peace will be agreed and we’ll put troops there to supervise the implementation of the agreement and the Russians will also know about it, then the Russians would have to agree with it, because otherwise they won’t sign the peace or it will be a pretext for them to continue the war.
Theoretically, we wouldn’t have to ask the Russians. But it would have to be credible, because all those security guarantees lie in the fact that it doesn’t matter whether you put 5,000 or 500,000 soldiers there. In the end, it must be that if after the conclusion of peace, Russia attacks Ukraine again, those who provide security guarantees go to war with Russia. I don’t mean by that that they go to destroy Moscow, but at minimum they will go into a sharp war with it to kick it out of Ukraine. And until Putin has the feeling that this is absolutely guaranteed, he won’t believe it.
2) The second thing is the United States, and here I will be positive towards the United States. The United States said they won’t put troops on the ground. It’s quite logical, because it’s really the case that we, Europe, have the primary interest in security in Ukraine. And therefore quite logically, J.D. Vance, with whom I don’t have to agree on everything, says: „So put your own troops then.“
But the United States must have a firm commitment, even if they won’t have a commitment in Article 5 to Ukraine, they must have a firm commitment to their allies. And they also said that they will support us from the air. And that air support can be logistical. They have a huge transport fleet, so they can quickly bring in supplies and reinforcements for allied troops.
It can also be combat. They have combat aircraft, we’ve seen that they can, with those aircraft carriers and aircraft they have in Europe today, and with tankers they can bring in, get to that area very quickly. They can maintain what they maintained over Iran – continuity of combat operations. Not that we fly for 3 minutes, fire a missile, and have to land. They can keep aircraft in the air, they can create continuous pressure, they have means like long-range missiles and the like. So theoretically, they could do it.
And now we see Russia’s reaction – at this moment, Russia is starting to speculate. They say that China should also be in those security guarantees. Logically, it seems fine. On the other hand, we in Europe can probably say that we don’t need it. The Russians are creating an axis with China and North Korea. And besides North Korean soldiers, we don’t need Chinese soldiers in Europe either. Let China guard its space in Asia nicely and not stick its horns into Taiwan, the Philippines, and beyond, where it’s pushing. Certainly not into Europe. Because that wouldn’t be a true guarantee.
And the Russians want such a guarantee… I can imagine, for example, Turkish troops as separation troops. Because the Turks have relatively good relations with both sides. We’ll see how it develops. But I’m starting to suspect that the meeting, as you suggested, won’t happen. Already now, the Russians are saying that they first need to negotiate things at the working level. Trump has actually already said that the Russians and Ukrainians should go to negotiations themselves.
And here I’ll give a final anecdote. President Trump boasted. First, he said that he had already closed or ended 5 wars. Then 7. Now he said 7. I’ll leave it for another podcast, but I want to say that, for example, between Serbia and Kosovo, there was no imminent war threat. That was virtual from Trump.
Where credit can be given to him is certainly in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, because those parties also negotiated with the White House. And they also humiliated Putin because they went to close it in Washington with the assistance of the United States. And the United States is also involved there in the corridor between Karabakh and Armenia.
When we look at India and Pakistan, Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Prize and India says you had no hand in it at all, you weren’t involved. And finally in Cambodia and Thailand, yes, China and the United States assisted with that, pushed, but the mediator was ASEAN. The Prime Minister of one of the ASEAN countries was the main sponsor who secured that agreement. But of course, these two big ones, the USA and China, gave that political-strategic signal that they are behind that agreement, they are pushing for it, and so it happened.
Weapons Deliveries for Ukraine
Moderator: How will it be with weapons deliveries for Ukraine?
General Macko: These weapons deliveries continue, various formats are being negotiated. What was said holds true, that the United States will sell those weapons to NATO and NATO will pass them on to Ukraine. Financial mechanisms are being sought for how to finance it. I think this will continue.
Several initiatives have been announced, because here we need to have a clear scenario: As long as Russia keeps dragging out the war, Ukraine needs that support and help. We’ve seen that Trump is even using his so-called „presidential drawdown authority“. This means that without Congressional approval, he can reduce part of the army’s supplies. Here we’ve returned to the regime that was roughly under President Biden.
But for domestic politics, President Trump now has an excuse, because he’ll say: „I did everything for there to be peace, but the Russians won’t listen, so I have to help the Ukrainians.“
Moderator: Yesterday he even said that Biden forced the Ukrainians only to defend themselves, that war cannot be won by defending and that the Ukrainians should attack. Did I explain it correctly?
General Macko: Bingo! That’s exactly what I said back in April of last year, when I said that everyone says Trump is unpredictable. We knew that. I said, prepare for a roller coaster.
But what was essential was that I said that Trump, if he gets angry, can go into it radically. And those are the remarks about whether Zelensky is willing to attack Moscow and so on. Because it’s like this: Even if Ukraine doesn’t want to defeat Russia on Russian territory, in defense you can avoid losing. But you can never win. No war was ever won by defense.
Anniversary of August 21, 1968
Moderator: Yesterday we commemorated that sad anniversary of August 21, when the Russians invaded us. You, from what I know, were also at some memorial events. But I would first ask you if you could comment on such a simple fact that Prime Minister Fico didn’t say a word about it.
General Macko: I think it’s completely clear. In ’68, the world was divided into two camps. And our ancestors had no choice. And despite that, they had collaborators here who legitimized the entry of Soviet troops.
As Juraj Mesík wrote yesterday in a commentary for one newspaper – let’s tell the truth, that people didn’t write about Soviets anywhere when those Russians came here. They wrote „Russians go home!“ And by Russians, they meant that empire. Now we’re not talking about nationalities that they drove into it from their country and those partner states.
But when they came here, we still had collaborators who sanctified it. But back then our ancestors couldn’t help themselves against that enormous superiority that rushed in here during the night. But today we can choose. And today we have collaborators here who are again speculating to go this same path, and it’s outrageous that the Prime Minister did not comment on this.
But something else is also outrageous. Foreign Minister Blanár did comment. And purely technically, if I didn’t know what he said before and who he is, what he said was correct.
Even the President expressed himself. I allowed myself to needle him and troll him yesterday, because the President said that we must be in the European Union and NATO to not experience something like this, for it not to be repeated. So I’ll remind everyone, and I’ll be bad and biased, that the President began his presidential campaign by taking a photo with the Russian Federation’s Ambassador Bratchikov. And that testifies to his sincere interests in Russia, where he still hasn’t understood that Russia is an aggressor, that Russia has been conducting this imperial policy for the last 300 years, and that we should be on guard against Russia, and not collaborate with them or collect points from misguided citizens who would even today welcome these occupation troops on our territory.
Moderator: And where did you spend yesterday?
General Macko: I spent it in Trnava. It’s true that Patrik Lenghart, a university teacher, an activist, convinced me to also join a civic association, an activity called „Wednesday,“ where we are trying to limit the influence of foreign powers, in this case Russia, here, because the Russians are trying to create again an atmosphere in Slovakia like the one that preceded the invasion in ’68.
So I was with Michal Kocáb in Trnava, there were also artists who supported it. It was a more than two-hour event, we were reminiscing about the symbolism of these events, but also those threats and what is happening in Ukraine, what is the connection between what is happening in Ukraine, the year ’68, and what can happen to us if we’re not careful.
This same thing was expected from our government. It didn’t have to explicitly attack Russia, but it should have given a clear signal to citizens: „This is happening in Ukraine and that’s why we’re going to support Ukraine and our common interests within Europe.“
And do you know what the Prime Minister did? It’s not that he didn’t express himself. The Prime Minister also made the headlines of Indian newspapers. I follow those English-language and Indian ones, where he made headlines. And for what does our Prime Minister make world headlines? He didn’t get there with any reform, he didn’t get there with anything extraordinary that would be in Slovakia. Slovakia got to the headlines of world media the most during his governments when they killed Kuciak, when he attacked Macron and called everyone in the West warmongers. And now again, because he said that Slovakia will block all European support activities towards Ukraine.
History of the Second World War
Moderator: Let’s go to history, the cycle from the Second World War. Last time we discussed the Balkans, if I remember correctly. What was happening to the east of us?
General Macko: This worked out for us and factually it’s not a plan, I can tell the listeners. Because the original plan was that we would get to the Slovak National Uprising, but that can’t be realized, that war was longer, more complex.
We’re missing from that picture, when we take from the year ’40 to ’41, the Soviet Union and what was happening in its surroundings. And a lot was happening there. Outwardly, the Russians or Soviets pretended to be a neutral power, but in reality, they were very active.
I’ll remind that we discussed the Winter War, and it ended in March 1940 with some peace agreement. The Winter War with Finland. The Russians understood that they wanted to have that Karelia to secure the defense of Leningrad then, but they knew that they couldn’t turn Finns into Russians, so they left the rest alone, because they got a beating right in that first phase anyway. In the second phase of the Winter War, they were a bit more successful.
But what continued? The Soviets continued to cooperate very intensively with Nazi Germany. They were allies. When we look at spring-summer 1940, they expanded and occupied – they did an Anschluss – the Baltic states: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia under the pretext of protecting their western border. They called it „securing the western border“. And as if they were protecting these nations. So in June they occupied them. And in July they immediately annexed them. They created Soviet republics in these three countries and annexed them.
In June 1940, the Soviet Union also forced the cession of Northern Bukovina and Bessarabia from Romania. That’s today’s Moldova. In the fall, the Soviets under Stalin tried to conduct diplomacy. They plotted even more with the Nazis.
I remind that the Soviet Union on September 17, 1939, attacked Poland, 17 days later than Slovakia and Nazi Germany. And they divided Poland between them. So Stalin, based on those Molotov-Ribbentrop pacts, tried to get closer to Hitler and Nazi Germany. They wanted to divide Europe and the world.
So Molotov in November 1940 visited Berlin, where he negotiated about the possible entry of the Soviet Union into the pact of three powers, which was Germany, Italy, and Japan. In short, the Soviet Union still in November 1940, for its dirty imperial interests, after it stole the Baltics, after it stole Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, wanted to become part of the fascist axis of Germany, Italy, and Japan. I’m just reminding all those Russophiles.
On June 22, 1941, a breach was made to that, when the Germans attacked the Soviet Union. That’s why the Soviets say, because you have to translate those words, „treacherous attack“, because even under communist propaganda, you’re older, Jeno, you remember it, that they always said „treacherous attack on the Soviet Union“. That was in those Czech documentary films. Treacherous in that they were the closest allies of Nazi Germany and it betrayed them when it already saw that they weren’t sufficiently prepared, and implemented Operation Barbarossa.
Moderator: What military operations did the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, so this word I’ve already removed from my vocabulary, undertake in this period, besides that Winter War?
General Macko: Let’s say directly Bolshevik Russia – the Bolshevik Communist Party was then called the All-Russian Communist Party (Bolshevik). Literally.
Well, that occupation of the Baltics, that was a lightning military operation without a declaration of war, where they actually sent units, occupied strategic points, and forced governments to resign. Now, that’s why I’m reminding of this, this is exactly like through carbon paper, this is what the Russians do systematically. They did it in ’68 here, they landed at Ruzyně, stole, took our political leadership to Moscow, and subsequently established their regime here, installed their people here, with whom they then ruled.
They even forced on us a treaty, which our Prosecutor General Maroš Žilinka, an associate of this Petrushev, where he goes to the Hermitage and walked with him a few years ago, talked about, and that’s such a shame. He said that it was an excellent treaty, that it was far better than the defense cooperation agreement with the United States.
And this is Slovakia, and this is what we don’t realize – those threats, that the Russians are coming, and it doesn’t matter whether it was Tsarist Russia, whether it’s Bolshevik Russia, whether it’s now post-imperial Russia. The Russians have always done this – they occupied key squares on the chessboard, replaced the pieces, took control, when they couldn’t control, they destroyed everything with bombs, missiles, tanks.
Moderator: How did the neighbors react to everything that those Russians got up to?
General Macko: Well of course, and that’s another explanation of why history sometimes happens as it happens. Because besides this, they also conducted covert operations and repressions in those occupied territories.
Just as here after 1945, even before the communists took power here, they exported people illegally to gulags, they did this in these countries too. The NKVD, which was the predecessor of the KGB, the Soviet secret police, carried out extensive purges, deportations, arrests in newly occupied territories, to destroy potential resistance and ensure Sovietization. This is what would await Ukrainians if Ukraine fell, this is what would await all of us if they fell.
So the reaction of those countries was quite clear. Poland was dismantled. There was only domestic underground resistance there, but it was dismantled. Finland, since it lost territory in that war, after the Nazis attacked the Soviet Union, quite understandably joined the German side, because they hoped to at least recapture lost Karelia.
Romania also had to cede that Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina in 1940, so later it joined the German invasion against the Soviet Union. Hungary was watching very carefully, because when they occupied that Bessarabia and Bukovina, the Russians came closer to the borders of Subcarpathian Ruthenia, which was then in Czechoslovakia, but the more southern part was Hungarian-speaking, and the Soviets pushed in there. So Hungary also joined the war against the Soviet Union alongside Germany.
I mentioned Poland, and the Slovak state – we had relatively normal relations with the Soviet Union and under the influence of those events, we also joined and sent the Rapid Brigade on June 22, 1941.
In other words, with its disgusting imperialist policy, Russia pushed those countries, which could have been either neutral or perhaps even allies with them, into Hitler’s fold, because in the end, those countries had no other choice if they wanted to survive. They had to join where they thought they would be better off.
360°: Africa
Moderator: What’s on your radar, Pali?
General Macko: I have several things there, but it’s Africa again. That’s a beautiful area. The main thing that caught my interest from those agency reports is that the Nigerian army reported on a significant operation in the Lake Chad basin, where they eliminated the highest leader of Boko Haram.
This drew attention also because of the importance of that region, because we’re talking about Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger. The operation is considered quite a big blow to the jihadist group, which has been plaguing that region with violence for more than 10 years. These are just hard-core jihadists.
Besides that, there was an interesting incident that a bomb exploded near a military air base in Colombia, as if violence was returning there. There was a fight there also with Maoists who were hiding in the mountains. Tension in Syria, intra-Syrian tension, was renewed in connection with the 12th anniversary of the deadly chemical attack near Damascus. These are such unresolved problems.
But what stood out to me the most was that Boko Haram.
Moderator: And what actually is Boko Haram?
General Macko: Boko Haram was founded in Nigeria, in the northeast, by some Muhammad Yusuf in 2002. By the way, it’s similar to how Hamas was formed. There was also a Yusuf there who founded Hamas.
It started as a religious movement that opposed Western-style education. Actually that „Boko Haram“, „haram“ means forbidden, and that „Boko Haram“ was like „we don’t want this Western education“. Just as the Taliban started in Madrasas somewhere in Pakistan, and also tried to return to Islamic conservatism, Sharia law.
But of course, subsequently it began to radicalize there. Yusuf was killed outside of court during skirmishes, they had a new leader, and he was no longer concerned with education or culture, but with a hard jihadist uprising. First they focused on Nigeria, then they went to Cameroon, Chad, and Niger and exploited the permeability of borders and those various ethnic ties. And they started to stick their necks out.
I remember that they kidnapped schoolgirls, raped them, but that’s less known now. In 2015, they then pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. The Islamic State was supposed to be a worldwide caliphate, Islamic, that would control the whole world. And they declared themselves as the West African province of the Islamic State.
And just a statistic: That uprising caused 350,000 deaths, 3.2 million displaced people in that area, in the Lake Chad basin. Of course, agriculture, trade, access to health services were significantly disrupted.
So a multinational joint operational group was then formed there, composed of units from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger, who tried to fight against them. Then we had units in Mali, even international ones, and a European mission, which also tried to help locals in Mali against these Islamists.
But in Mali, what then happened was that a military junta seized power and kicked out these units as well.
Moderator: And what do the Americans, French, and Russians do with these juntas, with those local ones, in this area?
General Macko: And this is interesting, because we discussed within the Security Radar that a belt of those West African juntas was created. ECOWAS was 15 countries that were in that sub-Saharan area and West Africa, which cooperated as an economic association like the European Union or something similar. And they broke away, because there is a junta in Mali, in Burkina Faso, and also in Niger. We discussed this recently.
And now what happened? The United States, along with the French, had a base in Niger, from where, in cooperation with those local governments, they helped fight against these Islamists, jihadists. After the junta took power in Niger, they kicked them out, so the United States and France withdrew their troops and left that area.
Moderator: And imagine who is there…? Can I guess? Russians.
General Macko: Exactly. The Russians wormed their way in there, the Wagner Group came there first, and now the Russians have done it in such a way that they created the Africa Corps. By the way, the Africa Corps is a Nazi legacy from the past, Erwin Rommel commanded it. So the Russians have now built, following the model of those Nazis, the Africa Corps. These are basically successors to the Wagner Group, but the Russians now openly admit that they are supported, financed, and sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
These are trying to do several things there. First, to keep those juntas in power, to help them against the Islamists, because they disrupt order there, and mainly to mine diamonds and other minerals. To earn money.
Russia is strategically focused on this – they are trying to monopolize. This is also in Ukraine. There are large gas deposits around Crimea and in some parts of Ukraine. When the Russians take it, Europe will still be dependent only on Russian gas or from the rest of the world.
This is something that happened – after the collapse of the colonial empire, the Western world seemed to be less interested in Africa, abandoned it. 65% of natural resources today are controlled by China, and Russia is trying to grab the rest as quickly as possible.
Moderator: And what about the French?
General Macko: The French, unfortunately, are gradually leaving from there. They are losing influence there, even though they were former French colonies.
And the Russians, exactly as always. Let’s take it. In Europe, the Russians say that they still celebrate victory over fascism, even though they brought the second totalitarianism. And a moment ago we said that they were close allies – the Soviets and the Nazis. So although the Russians say, they maintain that tradition that they fight against fascism, at the same time they are the biggest sponsor and supporter of these extreme right-wing movements throughout Europe.
And in Africa, they do the same – they say that they help countries against former colonialists and the like. And gradually, in silence, they build their Russian colonies there. I just remind that in reality, Russia, where its territory is today, never built colonies and went straight to annexation. As Putin said, where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, it is ours. „This is ours.“
And this is a message probably also in connection with the anniversary of August 21, 1968, and the occupation of Czechoslovakia. Russian troops have already entered here twice. And that’s why Putin still thinks he has a claim to this whole Central and Eastern Europe. And it would be ideal for him if there were puppet governments here, like in Belarus. Because Lavrov also said this week that it’s not just about some territories in Ukraine. That they want to have such a political regime in Ukraine that they need and want.
And this is actually a warning and the main message of this week. Beware, these are permanent Russian imperial interests, here and in Africa. They will have cutthroats, killers there just to keep those countries under their influence.
Quote at the End
Moderator: What could perhaps be a quote for this difficult week?
General Macko: I’ve been saying for a long time that Russian imperial policy has not changed from Tsarist Russia through Bolshevik Russia to the present day. It’s just called differently. And that Putin dreamed of re-establishing Greater Russia. He’s a man from the KGB, raised on one teat of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the other from the KGB, and that stayed with him.
And that these people, supporters of Russia, like our red revolutionary Blaha and similar ones, actually still preach some Red Revolution, which, regardless of the victims, is supposedly the best for society.
So I’ll remind what none other than Sir Winston Churchill said about this regime: „Everyone sees how communism decomposes the soul of a nation, makes it miserable in peace and vile in war.“
Read also:
https://pavelmacko.sk/2025/08/14/general-pavel-mackos-security-radar-episode-125/
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