Is Russia provoking President Trump? #Attack on Kyiv#Kyiv#Putin#Russain war of agression#Russia#Trump#Trump's ultimate#USA#War in Ukraine
Kyiv experienced the worst Russian drone attack since the beginning of the invasion.
Russian forces attacked at 27 locations, with residential buildings, a children’s hospital ward, and a school destroyed. In this brutal attack, 8 people were killed, including a 6-year-old child. According to the latest information, up to 82 people were injured.
#Attack on Kyiv #Kyiv #Putin #Russain war of agression #Russia #Trump #Trump’s ultimate #USA #War in Ukraine
We are discussing the military and political consequences of the current situation in Ukraine with General Pavel Macko.
Interview with General Pavel Macko
Host: Welcome to JOJ24 broadcast. Good evening. General, why did the Russians decide to launch such a massive attack at this particular time?
General Macko: The Russians are now cyclically conducting at least one major attack on Kyiv every week. This is happening in the middle of the summer fighting season, while there’s also some ultimatum running which they are downplaying, and despite this, they want to damage Ukrainian infrastructure to the maximum extent possible. They want to hit as many targets as possible and use such massive combined attacks for this purpose.
Today’s attack wasn’t exceptional in this regard, since it’s cyclical as I said – these records are being broken all the time. What could be emphasized, however, is that for the first time, the attack began with a massive drone assault from all directions on Kyiv. This was meant to saturate the air defense system, followed by the launching of cruise missiles Iskander-K.
These are similar to Iskander ballistic missiles, except these fly at a low altitude above the ground. They are very precise missiles with a standard accuracy of less than 5 meters. And since we see what they hit, it’s clear that this was a completely deliberate Russian strike on a civilian area, because apart from the apartment building that was destroyed, there were only other civilian objects all around. So any error or accident is ruled out. Simply put, they did it deliberately.
Russian military doctrine and destruction of civilian infrastructure
The reason is that while the Russians don’t formally have in their doctrines that they can violate the Geneva Conventions and attack civilian targets, they do have in their military doctrine the destruction of civilian infrastructure – whether transportation or energy. They use it as a tool to undermine will, as part of psychological warfare and also as a tool of political pressure.
The fact that it doesn’t work is another matter, but simply in that portfolio of options they have available, the Russians have used this too. This is also the case with the „Oreshnik“ on Dnipro, where it has a large dispersion – on the contrary, it cannot hit precisely – and is also meant to cause as much damage, chaos, and panic as possible in the middle of the city.
They are trying to indicate that they will continue the attacks, that they will escalate, and that Ukrainians should not rely on sanctions or secondary sanctions or international pressure. The only chance – this is Russia’s message – is for Ukrainians to surrender, comply with Russian terms, and maybe then the Russians will change their approach.
Host: In recent months, Russia has also been escalating attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns far behind the front line. Is this a Russian tactic and what is it aimed at?
General Macko: This is what I’ve already indicated. They’ve been doing this since the beginning of the conflict, but of course as Ukrainian air defense gradually weakens and as the Russians gradually find tactical approaches to make attacks more effective, they are precisely aiming to create panic and chaos throughout the country and, of course, weaken infrastructure.
Attempt to weaken the Ukrainian economy and defense industry
This is also an important aspect. Ukraine is increasingly producing defense equipment on its own. For this, of course, it needs energy, it needs factories. The military ones are mostly underground and are well protected from the Soviet era – Ukraine was like an armory of the Soviet Union. But of course there are supply chains, there are also regular factories.
As a result, the Russians are trying to disrupt this Ukrainian economy as much as possible, to „cut its veins“ so that the economy cannot generate as many defensive resources. This makes Ukraine less dependent on external supplies and less dependent on political decisions and cycles within those external supplies, as we have seen that supplies were repeatedly interrupted.
So this is also a key objective of Russia – if they attack somewhere in central or western Ukraine, they attack precisely with the aim of disrupting the functioning of the Ukrainian economy and especially the military-industrial complex to the maximum extent possible.
Host: Could Trump’s shortened ultimatum also have been a catalyst for the Russian attack? The Russians firmly rejected it. What do you think will be the reaction of the American administration?
Trump, sanctions and the US response
General Macko: I’ll start with a reflection on whether it was a reaction. The Russians have been systematically escalating these attacks, so it’s hard to say. It would be speculation if I said that now they are actually sending signals to Trump as well. They have been doing this systematically since the beginning of the year and have been doing it since Trump took power.
After rejecting a possible ceasefire and ceasefire offers in April, the Russians began to escalate the pressure. Thus, they are trying to do something about the conflict. They probably also have their own economic problems.
When it comes to President Trump’s ultimatum, he has to some extent fallen into the trap of his own statements. This means he will have to do something. He has now threatened secondary sanctions – that means sanctions on all countries that will buy from the Russians certain products that will be subject to sanctions, as the United States itself does not buy many of them.
Here’s the problem where, at least with China, it could end up that Trump will not be able to enforce this and China will continue to buy oil from Russia as well as gas. And if the Americans came with those sanctions, the chapter of tariff and trade war would open again.
Trump has also indicated a very tough stance toward India, where it at least appears that he could really impose secondary tariffs and that those negotiations could be very tough. India, despite having built better relations with the United States in recent years, trades very intensively not only in arms products but also in oil products with Russia. This, of course, undermines Donald Trump’s effort to force Russia to end the fighting and sit at the peace table.
Planned American support for Ukraine
But there is also another aspect – Donald Trump is apparently preparing the ground for a more radical announcement of further deliveries of weapons systems to Ukraine, including offensive weapons systems. There is currently a bill in Congress in the Senate that should allow a regular model of financing and supplying Ukrainian forces with American weapons through NATO allies, where at least $8 billion a year should go to this type of support.
Host: As you mentioned yourself, Ukraine is facing a summer offensive, during which Russian forces are making advances in areas that have been relatively spared since the beginning of the war. Moscow has announced that its troops have captured the city of Chasiv Yar, which was an important stronghold of the Ukrainian army in the east of the country. What might this mean for Ukraine’s negotiating positions and for the further development of the conflict?
The significance of the capture of Chasiv Yar and the situation at the front
General Macko: It doesn’t fundamentally change the situation yet, because the fighting for Chasiv Yar has been going on for 16 months, so the city is totally destroyed. We’re talking about a town the size of Holíč or Šamorín – a 12,000-person city that the Russians have been conquering for 16 months. The actual fighting for Chasiv Yar has been going on since the fall of Bakhmut in May 2023, which means more than two years, because the first phase was to get to the Donbas water canal, which was a kind of natural barrier on the border of Chasiv Yar. When the Russians overcame it, they spent another 16 months conquering the city.
The situation is similar in Kupiansk, where for more than a year the Russians have been trying to capture the city. It’s the same with Pokrovsk, in Toretsk – they are in the city, but the fighting for the city has also been going on for over a year.
This means that even if the Russians captured these cities, even if the capture of Chasiv Yar was confirmed, it would tactically give them an advantageous position. There is higher terrain there that provides a good view of the surrounding area. They could further attack Konstantinovka, and if they gained that too, they would open a gateway for a larger grouping of troops, which we don’t see anywhere yet. They would have to move it from somewhere, and then they could start attacking in the direction of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.
Limits of Russian advance and negotiating positions
But even if they were successful in this, Russia’s negotiating position is that they still demand that Ukraine cede parts that have not been occupied so far, which they either never occupied at all, such as Slavyansk, Kramatorsk or Zaporizhzhia, or which they occupied temporarily, such as Kherson, from where they were pushed out.
This means that the negotiating position will not change in any fundamental way. The Russians would need a bigger breakthrough to occupy the rest of Donbas, but so far it doesn’t look like they have the capacity for that – unless the Ukrainians make some huge mistake. We don’t see any operational reserves, any larger grouping of troops that would be somewhere close to the front line and waiting to be deployed where the front line is broken through.
This means that even if the Russians break through the front line, they will more or less prioritize and take troops from some other parts of the front section and quickly strengthen the breakthrough area. But of course, this takes some time and also gives the Ukrainians time to regroup their forces.
Russian tactics and slow progress
The Russians are simply taking advantage of the fact that they have numerical superiority and that Ukrainians have a problem with personnel, which they compensate for with greater use of drones. The Russians are throwing all forces into battles, but progress is relatively slow. For larger cities, they are creating conditions for their encirclement and then gradual capture, but so far there is no sign of any dramatic speed in terms of advancing tens of kilometers a day.
Host: That was General Pavel Macko. Thank you for the interview and your time. Goodbye.
General Macko: Thank you for the invitation, have a pleasant evening.
Host: I will add to the viewers that you can also watch the entire interview on our website joj24.sk in the Studio JOJ24 section.
Videorecording of the interview you can see here:
https://youtu.be/r8Tzk3clOzg?si=lwRL_7fzxM-6AErE
See also:
Ukrainians and Russians are Learning. What About Us?
Ukrainian War for Existence – Pavel Macko – Bezpečnosť, Technológie, Stratégie
Trump sends nuclear submarines near Russia after Putin aide’s ‘dead hand‘ threat
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