General Pavel Macko’s Security Radar – epizode 186
Transcription and translation of a popular podcast on security and defence issues. The content was originally broadcast at the weekly .týždeň on Nov 6, 2026.
The battles in Ukraine are transforming into a confrontation of automated armies, where the shortage of manpower on both sides is being compensated by artificial intelligence and machine vision. Russia is escalating its massive aerial terror campaign against the energy grid. On the diplomatic front, a key trilateral summit in Abu Dhabi is being prepared, which definitively bypasses the Europeans. Europe is facing the largest wave of Russian hybrid attacks to date – from organised bomb hoaxes targeting civilian aviation to the officially confirmed GRU terrorist conspiracy involving parcel bombs.
Welcome to episode 186 of General Pavel Macko’s Security Radar.
Part One: Fog of War
Front Situation in Ukraine
Moderator: Let us start, as usual, with Ukraine. How is the situation developing along the front line, and where are the main shifts?
Gen. Macko: October has ended, we have moved into November. For the second consecutive month – in October, the Russians recorded an overall loss of positions, meaning also the area of territory they control. Despite extreme personnel losses, they suffered 54,400 casualties – men and women, wounded and killed. Nevertheless, they continue with local tactical offensives.
I will highlight several specific directions:
▪️Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka – these are probably the heaviest battles. The Russians have now penetrated into the city. I should mention that all year they have been trying to capture Kostiantynivka. The Ukrainians are still holding their positions, but the Russians have partially managed to penetrate the city.
▪️Pokrovsk direction – for two and a half to three years we have been talking about what would happen when Pokrovsk falls. Pokrovsk has fallen, but the Russians have still not broken through to Dobropillia. And it now even seems that even if they captured it and occupied that area, it would not lead to any further rapid advance towards the unoccupied part of Donbas, nor a flanking of the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk fortified zone. The Russians achieved a minor tactical shift, but an inconsequential one – at the cost of enormous losses in equipment and personnel, without any strategic breakthrough.
▪️Lyman and Kupyansk direction – the situation here is the opposite. The Ukrainians have successfully pushed back the Russians; Russian offensives throughout the entire Kupyansk area and in Borova have quieted down. The Russians are regrouping – they were unable to absorb the Ukrainian strike near Lyman and have so far failed to regroup their forces. Various versions are circulating on Telegram channels – one mentions a fuel shortage and similar issues. But the real problem is structural: the Russians simply do not have sufficient operational or strategic reserves to deploy there. They are trying to at least shift to a defensive posture and stabilise the lines to prevent the Ukrainian pressure from continuing.
▪️Southern and northern front – near Huliaipole, the Russians tried to push through but failed. Near Kharkiv, they attempted to expand the buffer zone in the Vovchansk area. Near the village of Okeliane, they also tried to break through, but were beaten back by the Ukrainians and expelled.
Conclusion: The front is static. The Russians, despite enormous efforts and massive losses, are de facto losing territory. Any normal strategist would say they are approaching some kind of culminating point.
Russian Air Attacks and Ukrainian Asymmetric Responses
Moderator: Winter is approaching and Russia is changing its air warfare tactics. What did Russian strategic strikes look like over the past week, what damage did they cause, and how is the Ukrainian rear responding with its asymmetric strikes?
Gen. Macko: Putin is changing his theory of victory in this war. Since he cannot advance on land, he is trying to destroy the Ukrainian economy, destroy as much infrastructure as possible, and is conducting pure terror against the population.
We witnessed a massive Russian wave on 2–3 November – one of the largest attacks. There were also quite a few ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The new tactic continues – highly coordinated waves of decoy and attack targets to overwhelm air defences.
Targets hit:
▪️A total of 9 different infrastructure nodes
▪️The transformer substation of the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant – which is extremely dangerous, because that power plant is in operation and cannot simply be shut down. It must have both power input and output, because you cannot stop a nuclear power plant as easily as a diesel engine on a ship – it is somewhat more complicated.
▪️Of five thermal power plants, three had to be shut down
Tragedy in the Zaporizhzhia region: The Russians attacked Komyshuvakha with glide bombs – killing 43 civilians. On the site was an abandoned school where humanitarian aid was being distributed and a large number of people had gathered. That seemed to the Russian commanding officers like a sufficiently good target for killing. An outright fascist regime. And they must have known about it – the day before, Ukrainian media reported that aid would be distributed there. That is precisely why they attacked there.
And as if that were not enough – after dropping 9 glide bombs, killing 43 people and injuring dozens more, they deliberately sent drones after the rescuers who came to save the wounded civilians. They killed the rescuers too.
Anyone – and now I will also come back to international sports and arbitration courts – anyone who even marginally tries not to see this or to conceal it, is exactly the same as if they were supporting Nazi camps. This is something for which Russia, as the Canadian Prime Minister said, cannot be admitted to any sporting events. Some say: don’t mix politics with sport. This is the other way around. Here, sport is being mixed with fascist politics, whose sole goal is – since they cannot win the war by normal means – the extermination of the population.
Moderator: And what are the main targets and damage caused by the Ukrainian strikes on Russia?
Gen. Macko: Here again we see that asymmetry. The Ukrainians focused on massive waves of strikes – from the 4th to the 5th of November there was a kind of reciprocal strike:
▪️They attacked energy factories
▪️They attacked distribution centres – for example, the Ozon warehouse in southern Russia, which contained uniforms and military supplies
▪️They struck the Ryazan refinery again – that is 340,000 barrels of oil per day, a massive complex. They hit three primary columns and four secondary processing facilities. Serious damage.
That is the only way the Ukrainians can strike at what constitutes the source of Russian power. Personnel losses occur there too, but it is exclusively targeted at what fuels the Russian war machine. The distribution of humanitarian aid is certainly not a source of Ukrainian combat strength – it is merely saving civilians who are suffering from the war.
Tipping Point: The Russians Are Approaching Their Culminating Point
Moderator: In analytical circles, the concept of a tipping point for Russian forces is increasingly being discussed. Are the Russians truly heading towards a collapse of sustainability, or is it merely propaganda in the fog of war? And how does the fact that Ukraine itself faces a critical shortage of manpower and must mobilise people by force fit into this?
Gen. Macko: I have been saying this for a long time – for several years. The conflict has entered a phase of attrition, where such a war will end either because one side collapses, or both sides become so exhausted that they are no longer capable of continuing.
And now – I know that pro-Russian commentators will troll me – but truly: the Russians are reaching, if we want to put it differently than a tipping point, some kind of culminating point, from which things will not improve. What does this mean specifically?
▪️The Russians are deploying ever greater effort and are de facto losing territory. Whatever they do, it brings them no significant results, and they are pouring enormous economic resources into it.
▪️Recruitment problem: The Russians have a vastly larger recruitment pool and have managed to recruit, but since the beginning of the year they have had a problem – losses are higher than the ability to replace them. They are steadily approaching the point where Putin will have to order mobilisation. For now it appears not – he is letting it flow freely and is relying on the fact that Ukraine faces the same problem.
▪️Ukraine’s situation: Ukraine has significantly fewer men. It must also protect its economy – which is why it granted large exemptions for defence industry enterprises and strategic companies. You simply cannot take people off the street to go and manufacture weapons. Those people must be qualified.
Both sides face the same problems and each is solving them differently:
▪️Russians are addressing the situation by increasing quantity and copying Ukraine’s technological asymmetry
▪️Ukrainians were forced to bet on asymmetry. They have strong support from the West – including economic support – which serves as a cushion. The Russians do have a far larger economy and high oil prices have helped them somewhat, but they must produce everything themselves – neither China nor North Korea gives them anything for free. The Russians pay dearly for everything. They have resources that Ukraine – even with the help of all of Europe – does not have. They have enormous natural resources and can extract something from them. But structural problems are growing and this method of generating power is unsustainable in the long term.
Important warning: The tipping point should not be imagined as a stock market crash. On the stock market there are predictive systems – it falls because negative expectations arise and people start selling shares quickly. The real economy works differently. We usually only see the tipping point in retrospect – when we look at the curves and see how long production grew, how long military recruitment grew and produced some results. And suddenly we spot the break: no further results, production declining. In mathematics this is called an inflection point – the curve goes up, at the top is the inflection point, and then it suddenly turns downward. That is what genuinely threatens the Russians.
The drone war and technological asymmetry:
Ukraine is technologically one step ahead, but the Russians are learning. Ukraine introduced drone forces – the Russians are copying this, but in a different way. The Russians are still using it only as a supplement to quantity. Ukraine is trying to use drones to replace the missing manpower. The result is what you yourself suggested – a drone war and automated warfare, where an increasing number of automated systems are taking the field.
But the difference lies in the technology. Ukraine has built a comprehensive networked battlefield. They have the so-called Model 13 with predictive models. Today they can even estimate possible drone swarms – how they will attack and in what direction – because they have thousands and thousands of hours of trained algorithms that recognise patterns in Russian activity.
In the military it is customary: when a problem arises, a generalisation is made so that all units know what happened and how to avoid it. And then best practices are shared – what proved effective in one place, the military tries to replicate as quickly as possible everywhere.
So Ukraine is on the edge, but it has something important behind it – and this is a message for our politicians and citizens: If we do not want Russia to win and continue this terror further, because it will be strengthened and will gain the potential of Ukraine, we cannot stop supporting Ukraine now. We cannot knock it flat and pretend like our Prime Minister does – peace, peace, peace. He should first make peace with Slovak thieves and murderers – our prisons are full of such people. Simply not: you must take repressive measures as long as aggression continues.
And when that aggression ends – and I am open to this scenario, I wrote about it four years ago – a peaceful settlement with Russia is possible. For example: Russia receives a clear signal, because you must offer something to make them stop – since defeating them on their knees is not a realistic scenario. They end the war, pay reparations, we allow them to return to the markets on the condition that they use that to repay reparations. We will be more careful, we will have safeguards – if they stop complying with the peace plan, we immediately stop all financial flows. You do not want to destroy Russia after all – it is one seventh of the world. A solution must always be found. Japan and Germany, after denazification and demilitarisation, reintegrated. We are not even in a scenario where Russia would fall to its knees – and nobody wants to defeat it that way. But talking about peace in a situation where Russia is brazenly continuing its aggression and murdering civilians who are receiving humanitarian aid in order to survive – that is nonsense. Russia started the war, Russia can end it.
Rado Macko: I just wanted to correct you slightly, Paľko – our Prime Minister is already taking such measures as you were talking about, only not yet concerning murderers and violent criminals. For now he is focusing only on economic activity.
Gen. Macko: Well, on party allies and nominees. But you have to start somewhere.
The Middle East: Israeli Elections and the Situation in the Region
Moderator: Let us move to the Middle East. The elections in Israel have ended, and the elections in the USA have ended too. How has the situation in Israel developed over the past week, and what are the trends? This morning, by the way, the Israeli President announced that on Sunday he will announce whom he will task with forming a government.
Gen. Macko: Yes, and that is exactly where I am heading – I have it right in my notes, because there is already speculation about it. President Herzog concluded consultations with political leaders – just as our President does here. Technically, what happened is this: Netanyahu did win, but only gained 53 seats out of 120. Eisenkot, a retired general and his main opponent, gained 48 seats. Arab parties gained 19 seats. It is all divided this way.
Netanyahu attempted a revision of the results – in a rather unfortunate manner. He deployed Shin Bet (the domestic counter-intelligence service, the one that uncovered Hamas and secured cooperation – that is different from the Mossad, which handles external intelligence activities) to challenge the Arab parties, he wanted them investigated. Israel’s Attorney General shut that down.
The situation is such that despite Netanyahu having about 27 seats in his bloc, he does not have the coalition potential to form a majority government. It is therefore quite likely that on Sunday, Herzog will announce Eisenkot as the person tasked with forming the government. One scenario is also that it will drag on – there will be a caretaker government in a keep the lights on mode (in this case also fighting) at least until the first quarter of next year. If a government cannot be formed, there could be further early elections.
There is also talk of a grand coalition scenario – including a variant where Netanyahu receives a pardon and does not become Prime Minister. Herzog will also have difficulty with whether to accept Arab parties into the government at a time when the war with the Arab world in Gaza and Lebanon is still ongoing – that could be controversial and further inflame wounds. Protests against Netanyahu will continue in the meantime. So perhaps something like a national reconciliation in the form of a grand coalition will be formed, where Netanyahu leaves and is not prosecuted.
Further events in the region:
▪️Fighting in Gaza continues.
▪️UNIFIL confirmed that it is definitively ending on 31 December – UN forces that have been in southern Lebanon for 50 years will withdraw. The UN Security Council mandate was not extended. This is definitive and there is no way to keep these forces there.
▪️Israel’s 188th Brigade (previously deployed in Gaza, with experience from the fighting there) is eliminating Hezbollah tunnels and warehouses near the Litani River.
▪️The loss of congressional control weakened Trump, which opens space for de-escalation with Iran on Israel’s part. The problem, however, is that Netanyahu is characterised by some opponents as the person who damaged the strategic relationship with the United States – and as a result, Trump announced that he would not provide Israel with military aid. And it is not just about money. Israel could find money somehow, but military assistance including technological support is crucial for Israel.
▪️Israel is spending more than 6% of GDP on defence and there is a threat that if the US halts aid, that figure could jump to 7%.
The US–Iran Conflict
Moderator: Let us look at the US–Iran situation. Following Trump’s election – will his threat of a massive strike materialise?
Gen. Macko: If I could see inside Trump’s head… I don’t think even God Almighty can see inside it – despite Trump invoking conservative values. He is simply impulsive and unpredictable. We knew that from his very first term in office.
Right now it appears that after the electoral defeat, Trump has moderated his rhetoric. He says he probably will not carry out the big strike on Iran. But he said the same thing before the first strike – in the middle of negotiations he struck on 28 February. The reality is that a covert strike on one of the islands took place, nothing major, but it happened after the firing of an Iranian missile at an American fighter jet. Tit for tat – an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. You do it to me, so I do it back to you twice. The drone and guerrilla war continues, with ships being attacked. CENTCOM – the American command for the Middle East and Central region, headquartered in Tampa, sometimes incorrectly referred to as the central command (it is a geographic command, just as EUCOM is headquartered in Stuttgart as the European command) – is preparing some kind of strike.
Two possible scenarios:
1. More optimistic scenario: A diplomatic window is forming. Congress can restrict the President – and that through finances. America is a presidential system, the President is powerful, but Congress can cut off war funding. There is the War Powers Act – the President can conduct war for up to 90 days, then Congress must approve it. If Democrats have both chambers, they can block it. It is not easy to remove him because of this, but they can cut his finances. This is the lesson from the Vietnam War – during Lyndon Johnson the draft was gradually increased, until finally people fled from Saigon in 1975. In 1976, a law was passed giving Congress oversight, including, for example, the fact that some strategic assets are in the reserve component – in the National Guard or reserves – and their federalisation must be approved by Congress. The President can realistically conduct war, but without congressional approval cannot deploy some strategic assets, such as tankers.
2. Lame duck scenario: What happened in the elections will only become real in January. Until then there is a vacuum in which an angry President can do anything. An important factor: Trump is in his second term and will not be able to run again. Such presidents are always said to be the weakest, but also the most dangerous – nothing threatens them anymore and they can take steps that have no support even within their own party.
Iran responds to this with threats – in its propaganda it publishes NATO bases and American bases across Europe and threatens to escalate terrorist attacks in Europe.
Yemen: The Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and a Dead End
Moderator: Let us skip to Yemen. How is the situation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis developing?
Gen. Macko: Things are not good here either. I will explain the mechanics first and then something that even shocked me somewhat. Saudi Arabia has been trying to assist – in inverted commas – the legitimate government of Yemen (temporarily based in Aden, since the capital Sanaa is occupied by the Houthis) since 2015. It has invested a great deal in this and is now receiving hard blows in return.
Situation on the ground:
▪️Government forces are conducting a counter-offensive; they were partially successful in some provinces, but the Bab el-Mandeb strait and the coast are controlled by Houthi forces – with support, which has been proven, from the Russian satellite constellation Cosmos 2600, which was relaying data to Houthi forces attacking Saudi targets. The Russians are playing their own game here.
▪️Iran pressured the Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb. So far, thank goodness, that has not happened, but they can realistically do it at any time.
▪️The government offensive is making progress, but with massive losses – it is inconclusive. The Houthis are still 60 kilometres from Aden.
▪️Directly within the Houthi command structure, 21 foreign experts are operating – 7 from Hezbollah and 14 from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
Shocking ultimatum:
Saudi Arabia attempted to negotiate with the Houthis. Why? Because during the week under review, the Saudis had to halt 86% of civilian air traffic. The United Arab Emirates, which had previously been helping them directly in combat, withdrew.
The Saudis attempted negotiations and received a harsh, shocking financial ultimatum: 51 billion dollars in war reparations, official recognition of their government over Yemen, and control over Bab el-Mandeb. That is something Saudi Arabia will have difficulty swallowing. It does not have sufficiently mobilised forces for an existential war with the Houthis. It is becoming isolated – Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey all refused to send soldiers for offensive operations. That is not good.
Part Two: Behind the Scenes
American Midterm Elections
Moderator: Let us move to the political event of the year – the midterm elections, which brought a decisive victory for the Democrats. How did you perceive it?
Gen. Macko: We all expected some kind of blow to come. It was bigger than anticipated. Unfortunately it is not big enough – the Democrats would need at least 60 votes in the Senate for impeachment. Impeachment is tricky – a complicated matter. You remove him, but you can hurt yourself in the process. From the Democrats‘ perspective: first of all, it may not succeed. Secondly, it could mobilise Republicans and they could lose the next major elections, which are still two years away.
The Democrats won. The situation is such that they will pass laws with which they will try to address what people voted for them to fix – the difficult economic situation and similar issues. Trump will be able to veto those, and the victory will gradually fizzle out.
From a security perspective: Trump can theoretically do anything, but he must weigh it up – he could burn bridges that would make any meaningful candidacy impossible for whoever would want to succeed him. America is a presidential system – what matters is not only who controls Congress, but also who is in the White House.
Secretary of Defense in the crosshairs:
There is a search for a main culprit and there is discussion that they would sacrifice the Secretary of Defense. This individual was even less sympathetic to me from the start than Donald Trump. And unfortunately, there are real arguments against him – he has caused so much damage. In my view he should not have become Secretary in the first place – due to his narcissism and misogyny he had no business being there. Such a person, who attacks even allies and partners, fires professional soldiers who dedicated their careers to their country…
I just finished reading a book by Bill McRaven (former commander of the Navy SEALs and American Special Operations Forces (SOF) – incidentally it is his birthday today, Rado, so happy birthday to both of you). And when I saw how he fired the admiral – a female commander – without any justification, apparently simply because she is a woman (because such a misogynist does that), she defeated him directly in the Republican heartland. This showed that Americans are still patriots – she was able to appeal to patriots regardless of party affiliation.
Trump formally said he would keep him on, but in the meantime he is calling his advisers and looking for someone to replace him with. Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor, is mentioned for example. He would certainly be better.
(An active-duty soldier cannot be Secretary of Defense – the standard is a 7-year waiting period after active service, after which even an active soldier can hold the position.)
Directly, Republican Senator Thomas Massie is submitting a constitutional indictment on Monday – an impeachment – and will accuse him of war crimes: of beating people who survived the strike on a ship in the Caribbean and were then, on his orders, finished off despite the fact that they were no longer offering armed resistance. And of attacks on civilian targets in Iran. Behind the scenes there is speculation that he may ultimately survive it. Which would be a shame, in my opinion.
There is also a scenario where he voluntarily steps down – a gubernatorial position has become available in Tennessee, he could move there and that would effectively gag him. Because he himself is considering a presidential candidacy. We have similar people here… I will not name them so as not to give them publicity.
A second thing: unlike the President, he does not have immunity – not for corruption or for other things he was accused of. He could therefore end up behind bars too. If he is not sacrificed, there is talk of sacrificing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – an aviator who praised these operations too much and defended what was happening too forcefully.
And here is a warning for everyone, including Slovakia: A soldier must not be servile to political power. He gives his best military recommendation – if he is not heeded, he resigns honourably. In Britain, Sir Dennet (head of the defence staff), when he disagreed with the government on a reform, resigned. French General de Villiers did the same and president Macron had enormous domestic political problems as a result. Here it was the opposite – the servile were promoted, the professionals were fired. Including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, African-American General Brown.
Diplomatic Background: Abu Dhabi, Kyiv and the Slovak Prime Minister
Moderator: Behind the scenes, closely watched trilateral talks are being prepared in Abu Dhabi. We are also seeing billion-dollar injections for Kyiv and rather unexpected moves by the Slovak Prime Minister. What is actually happening?
Gen. Macko: I will start with Abu Dhabi. It appears it will be trilateral technical talks – and the Europeans are definitively excluded from it. They have found a Plan B: they will essentially just brief the Europeans. I am sceptical given Russia’s stance. They will agree on the exchange of prisoners of war, on some minor technicalities, they will talk behind the scenes – but no public conclusion about the form of a future summit at the highest level, where Putin and Zelensky would meet, will emerge.
As regards money: The European Union paid out €4.36 billion from the European Peace Facility.
Slovak Prime Minister in Ukraine: The Prime Minister finally found the courage and travelled to Ukraine for a session. It was a major concession. He apparently had it arranged somehow so that missiles would not be falling right then – because everywhere else was being bombed. He looked terribly exhausted. The Ukrainian media noticed and commented: don’t pay attention to my rhetoric, that is for the domestic audience. I will not even comment on that – it simply does not belong in politics.
What to his credit – in inverted commas: he moderated his rhetoric and sees that he is completely isolated. On the other hand, one million euros in aid for Ukraine – 500,000 for energy, three generators – does not cover even half a day of Ukrainian consumption. It is a good gesture, I do not criticise it. I am simply saying: it is too little, too late.
And once again he could not resist attacking the European Union. The essence of his criticism: the EU and the UN are dysfunctional. The UN is dysfunctional because players like Russia do what they want. And the result: the powerful – including Trump – have created their own parallel security and peace councils. And that is exactly where Robert Fico is heading: he went to show his face at a neo-fascist gathering in America where people were doing the Hitler salute, he supported Trump, he was in Moscow, Beijing, bathed in a golden bathtub in Vietnam. These powerful figures would like to carve up the world, because the system founded on rules and order is too complicated for them. They don’t like it. They simply want to do it differently.
This is the systemic problem with Robert Fico. Those small positive signals he is now sending are more about opening back doors – in case the war does not turn out the way he hopes. If Russia does not win decisively and Ukraine remains at least partially independent, a new Marshall Plan will come and we do not want to be excluded as we were from some programmes. That would be nonsensical.
Overall assessment: it is good that he was there. He made political gestures, also controversial reactions towards the EU. He did not deviate from his norm. Except for one thing – what he is doing is not normal at all.
Hybrid War in Europe: The GRU on a Path of Terror
Moderator: The covert war is taking place directly on European territory. We are witnessing a massive wave of hybrid attacks, and the Lithuanian prosecution has come forward with a groundbreaking accusation against the Russian GRU. What exactly did it reveal?
Gen. Macko: I will get to that, but let us proceed step by step. I returned last night from France. Right in front of the hotel I saw burning rubbish bins and a few students making noise – the media will portray it as major protests, but I will not comment on that. What is interesting and what I should comment on: the Russians are exploiting these protests enormously. They are inflating the problem, adding fuel to the fire. That is precisely where the hybrid war is taking place.
I was in France giving a lecture on hybrid threats – for specialists. I was able to include in the lecture precisely current examples from the very location.
Hybrid attacks over the past week:
▪️Cyberattack on cooling systems: The software of the Danish company Danfoss, which controls the cooling units in supermarkets, was attacked and breached. Damage is estimated at one billion euros in food products, with cooling units put out of action at 700 locations. What is less well known: blood supplies were also contaminated. That is a destabilising step.
▪️Yesterday, when I was flying out, I was glad I made it in time. There were 28 false bomb alerts – hoaxes – predominantly on transatlantic flights crossing the Atlantic.
▪️Lithuania, with Eurojust, charged 15 persons with terrorism in connection with the detonation of DHL parcels in Germany and Britain. It was proven that the GRU was behind it – it organised it directly. Physically they were hired and recruited agents, key players and organisers. (Compare: in Czechia they were physically GRU agents who blew up a munitions depot – here they were the organisers.) These bomb attacks on aircraft were a dry run for something bigger.
Consequences: Sweden, Denmark and Germany are introducing border controls on internal borders.
Now I was thinking about this – is it the right step? First thought: let us expel those Russians. I know that human rights activists will immediately say: collective guilt. But Russia is waging war against us – not only in Ukraine, but also on our territory. We, meanwhile, are closing our own borders and sacrificing the achievements of a free society. Because of the Russians whom we are letting in on visas, whom the Hungarians under Orbán were transporting here, who have agent networks here (in Slovakia practically an agent network) and political trolls who are happy to assist them.
The truth lies somewhere in between. We must be restrictive – and if the opposition were to come to power, it should introduce stricter rules for Russians, because because of them we are giving up our own values and freedoms. But border controls are at least deterrent. They burden ordinary citizens less, but will be an additional barrier for those trying to smuggle material and prepare attacks.
Part Three: 360° – Regional Flashpoints Around the World
Moderator: To conclude, let us quickly look around the world. Which other regional crises resonated most over the past week?
Gen. Macko: We touched on it last week and it continues, unfortunately – not because of us, but objectively:
▪️Ethiopia–Eritrea (Tigray region): The Ethiopian government wants to fight its way through to a port on the Red Sea. It struck back against Eritrean forces that were attacking in Tigray and destroyed some of their units. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared a plan to gain the Eritrean port of Assab and access to the Red Sea – by force or in peace. The conflict is escalating and others are watching it with increasing attention.
▪️South China Sea: Sparks again between the Philippines and China – the Filipinos blocked a Chinese ship, China is threatening the use of force.
▪️Sudan: Worsening security situation. For the first time we recorded the deployment of lethal drones in a neutral zone near a refugee camp. A further escalation – a change in the rules of the game. Already 18 million people are internally displaced. When those people are no longer safe even in camps, the situation will deteriorate even more dramatically.
Unfortunately, it is even worse than last week.
Closing Quote
Moderator: Let us move to the closing quote. You always choose it contextually – what did you choose for this electoral and post-electoral week?
Gen. Macko: „Politics is not a game of intentions, but a contest over resources and mandate. When the power centre in Washington changes, the tremors will be felt on every battlefield around the world..“
– paraphrase of Henry Kissinger, political scientist and former US Secretary of State