Negotiations on Security Guarantees for Ukraine #coalition of willing#Fico#France#Putin#Russia#security guarantees#Slovakia#Ukraine#USA#War in Ukraine#Zelensky
The coalition of the willing is negotiating guarantees for Ukraine, and Slovak prime minister Fico is going to stab it in the back, as he promised Putin in Beijing.
#coalition of willing #Fico #France #Putin #Russia #security guarantees #Slovakia #Ukraine #USA #War in Ukraine #Zelensky
Leaders of Nordic and Baltic states are discussing possibilities to increase pressure on Moscow at today’s summit in Denmark. Later in the afternoon, they will move to Paris for bilateral negotiations, from where they will connect with other allied leaders tomorrow, together with French President Emmanuel Macron.
The aim of the meeting is:
▪️Clarify what security guarantees the „coalition of the willing“ can provide to Ukraine after the war
▪️Ensure that Russian aggression does not repeat
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will also join online. „We expect that tomorrow or soon after, it will be clearer what we can provide together. We also want to involve the American side more and clarify how they want to participate in the implementation of security guarantees,“ officials said.
Current Situation in Ukraine
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that it repelled attacks by more than five hundred Russian drones and twenty-four missiles during the night. Residents of Druzhkivka in the Donetsk region faced artillery fire. In total, Russian night strikes injured at least 12 people and caused fires in many places.
Unmanned aircraft also targeted Kyiv, where the British Defense Minister arrived this morning.
„The main targets were civilian infrastructure, especially energy facilities, transport hubs, and even garages and apartments, which the Russians have become accustomed to attacking. Dozens of residential buildings in various regions of our country were damaged during the night.„
Interview with Pavel Macko
Moderator: From tomorrow’s meeting of the coalition of the willing with the participation of Volodymyr Zelensky, can we expect that it will bring clarity to the form of security guarantees for Ukraine? That after this meeting, the guarantees will be more concrete than before?
Pavel Macko: It is definitely a diplomatic effort by President Zelensky and Western leaders. The essential point is that they will discuss what guarantees Ukraine can receive, as it is quite clear that most of these leaders have come to terms with the fact that during the Donald Trump era, Ukraine will not become a NATO member country.
However, what is essential is something completely different, and that is whether we will even reach the point where these security guarantees could be activated. That is, whether we will reach some peaceful settlement or stopping or freezing of the conflict, and some at least temporary peace agreements with Russia. Such a peace agreement would then presuppose ensuring the security and maintenance of the achieved ceasefire or peace, which would be the so-called security guarantees.
Significance of Ongoing Negotiations
In any case, the discussion is important because it addresses what forces, capabilities, and mechanisms should be put in place for such a security guarantee to be provided at all. Of course, all of this will then be the subject of negotiations with Russia, because otherwise the only chance for the implementation of security guarantees would occur if Russian troops were pushed out of Ukraine, which is unrealistic at this moment.
This means that regardless of what they agree on, it will also depend on Russia whether it will agree to it. Especially when Russia is clearly not preparing for peace or a ceasefire, which complicates the preparation of those guarantees – it is not clear what the target state is for which the guarantees are intended.
„It is absolutely fundamental. Simply put, without knowing whether these guarantees will be acceptable to the other side, you are preparing for the unknown.“
During these talks, they are certainly also discussing how to even reach a state where it will be possible to implement these security guarantees. In other words, how to force Russia to enter negotiations on ending this war:
▪️By strengthening economic sanctions
▪️By strengthening Ukrainian capacities
▪️By strengthening Ukrainian capabilities
In short, for Russia to recognize that it no longer has the ability and capacity to gain anything further. After all, the Russians are regrouping and trying to do something because in the last three-quarters of a year, they have not actually achieved any significant success in this war and are constantly prolonging it.
Parameters of Security Guarantees
The parameters of these security guarantees without cooperation with Russia are very broad. Simply put, they must also consider such war plans as what would happen in case these security guarantees were not respected. If, for example, some troops were deployed, what would then be the mechanisms for their activation and possible involvement in suppressing any disruption of the agreed peace process?
Moderator: Let’s move on to what is being considered in more concrete terms. The participation of the United States will be essential. In this context, it is being said that it would consist of American air support for European soldiers deployed in Ukraine, the sharing of intelligence information, and the sharing of command and control systems. Would this form of American participation be sufficient to make the guarantees ultimately functional and deter Russia sufficiently from further attacks?
Pavel Macko: It would be, assuming there would be more than just support during ceasefire monitoring and security status. If the United States provided:
▪️Intelligence support
▪️Strategic air bridge for ongoing support and rotation of these troops (the EU has significant deficits in this area)
It is essential that the United States be prepared to activate massive air support in the event that these peace agreements are actually violated and there is potential contact with Western countries and their armies.
Strategic Significance of American Support
The logic is clear – it is on the European continent, primarily a question of European security, and quite logically, the United States demands that European countries participate in it to the maximum extent possible.
On the other hand, the United States is a key and strategic ally of European countries in NATO and cannot leave them in the lurch. This means that we should pay attention to the words of Mark Rutte, who says that in the classified parts of the talks, the United States must declare unequivocal determination and readiness for maximum possible support in case of escalation, that is, if a ceasefire is violated.
The United States has at its disposal:
▪️Strong air forces directly in Europe and the surrounding area
▪️The ability to project power – to move additional capacities in a short time using aircraft carriers
▪️Naval forces and submarines from which they can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles or similar means
Now it’s about getting this into those agreements and making it visible to Russia as well. Any possible violation in the future could mean massive escalation and a hard hit, including intervention by the United States. This must be clearly communicated to avoid misunderstanding or miscalculation on the Russian side.
Buffer Zone Between Front Lines
Moderator: Is it a realistic idea to create a buffer zone between the Ukrainian and Russian front lines? I’m asking because it would most likely mean the withdrawal of one side or the other from territories that it currently controls.
Pavel Macko: Nothing is impossible, but of course it is a very complicated step. In this situation, it would mean that Ukraine would have to abandon its fortified positions, which are currently holding despite great Russian pressure.
The Russians would also withdraw, but if they maintained an offensive formation, a perhaps 40-kilometer buffer strip – no man’s land – would be created. But if there were no obstacles in it, whether passive, in the form of barriers or minefields, then in case the Russians decided to violate this ceasefire in the future, they would be able to very quickly overcome this buffer zone and continue further.
Strategic Disadvantages of the Buffer Zone
If Ukraine did not build strong new defensive positions at the edge of this buffer zone, and if the peacekeeping forces provided by the guarantors were not able to occupy, monitor, or stop the advance of Russian troops in this zone, it would clearly give an advantage to Russian forces.
Russians simply do not need fortified defensive positions for an offensive, while Ukrainians would need them for possible defense against renewed aggression, or they would need another force that could stop that aggression – and immediately.
Reaction to the Slovak Prime Minister’s Stance
Moderator: I’m interested in one more thing. What do you think Ukrainian President Zelensky will answer when, at a joint meeting, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico protests against Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, as he promised in China before Vladimir Putin?
Pavel Macko: I think this matter is completely clear. Robert Fico in this case is playing with false cards. If he wants energy security for Slovakia, he should have diversified sources in the first place.
President Zelensky will probably tell him that:
1) Russia has attacked Ukraine
2) Ukraine is defending itself
3) The entire area is a war zone
Therefore, it is logical that even the only source that Robert Fico relies on may be subject to attacks. Ukraine does this in the interest of protecting the lives of its own citizens and as part of self-defense.
Counterproductive Stance of Slovakia
Robert Fico can at most at this moment threaten Ukraine that he will be disloyal and that he will somehow try to block the reverse flow that also supplies Ukraine – whether it’s gas, oil, or the interconnection of energy networks. But that would also be counterproductive, because a detour can be made through other countries. It only puts Slovakia in the position of not a non-cooperating partner, but a neighbor who is stabbing a dagger in the back of an attacked country.
In short, Zelensky will certainly express understanding for Robert Fico’s concerns regarding our energy security, but we have long known that a military conflict is ongoing, that there is a war, and that such infrastructure can also accidentally become the target of an explosion or accident. So I don’t think Fico will achieve anything more.
Moderator: Pavel Macko, thank you.
Pavel Macko: Thank you for the invitation. Have a nice day.
NASPAŤ